CSCO
Cisco
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 48/100Price today
$113.39
what the market pays
Worth
$37.34
calculated cycle value
Price is 204% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$41.41
per share
How it's calculated
Cisco — high assistant path (2026-06-06). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 34.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
65% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (12.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $3.37/share × 12.3x multiplier minus $4.07 in negative net cash = $37.34 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $113.39 is 67% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 204% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $35.47.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$29.87
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$35.47
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$113.39
-67% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Cisco is the plumbing of the internet: expensive to start, impossible to replace.
Cisco sells the hardware that moves the internet: switches, routers, and firewalls for companies and carriers. The business is reinventing itself toward software and subscriptions —security, observability, managed networking— which already make up more than half of recurring revenue. It bills $56.7B with a 65% gross margin.
Enterprise switching has been Cisco territory for decades: switching providers means rewiring the entire network and retraining the IT team. That migration cost buys loyalty, not enthusiasm. The weakness is that this moat protects a business that grows little.
Revenue history
From $51.6B to $58.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $56.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Splunk integrated: $4B+ in annualized security and observability revenue since FY2025.
Demand for AI networking in datacenters; orders crossed $1B in FY2025.
Growing dividend (~$1.64/share) plus buybacks: returning more than $10B a year to shareholders.
3% growth: this is a mature business dressed up as a tech one.
Arista and hyperscaler chips erode high-end switching.
$24.6B in debt against $8.3B in cash after swallowing Splunk.
Charlie's note
“Cisco is a cash cow with a good dividend and little shine. At 12x normalized FCF you pay a fair price for a business that grows like inflation —you're buying the cash flow, not the dream.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Cisco?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $35.47 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.