CTAS
Cintas
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 89/100Price today
$200.33
what the market pays
Worth
$88.95
calculated cycle value
Price is 125% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$94.22
per share
How it's calculated
Cintas — high assistant lane (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 48x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 33.7x.
54% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (22x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $4.28/share × 22.0x multiplier minus $5.27 in negative net cash = $88.95 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $200.33 is 56% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 125% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $84.50.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$71.16
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$84.50
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$200.33
-56% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The truck already passing down your street never stops.
Cintas rents and maintains uniforms for 1 million companies across North America, with weekly service including pickup, washing, and replacement. It also offers mats, restroom supplies, first aid kits, and fire safety. It charges via recurring contracts: $10.3B in revenue, 50% gross margin.
The moat is route density. Every truck already passing through an area adds customers at nearly zero marginal cost—something a new entrant can't match without years of losses. Recurring contracts and the low but annoying switching cost do the rest.
Revenue history
From $7.1B to $10.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $10.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Penetration of the non-contracted market: ~17M U.S. employees still without managed uniforms.
Cross-selling of First Aid and Fire, segments growing double digits on the installed base.
Buybacks and a growing dividend: 41 consecutive years raising the dividend.
Employment sensitivity: fewer workers at their clients means fewer uniforms billed.
Demanding valuation: at 22x FCF the market already pays for the quality, leaving little margin for error.
Cotton, energy, and labor costs pressure the margin if inflation returns.
Charlie's note
“22x for a business growing at 10% with half its revenue in gross margin is no gift, but route density is a real moat and those machines compound on their own. For quality like this you pay without apologizing; the hard part is having the patience to wait for the right moment.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Cintas?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $84.50 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.