CTSH

CTSH

Cognizant

Dividend / Cash flow

★ Quality 21/100
Overvalued

Price today

$43.78

what the market pays

Worth

$32.28

calculated cycle value

Worth $32.28price today $43.78

Price is 36% above its value

charlieapp.co

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$22.7$39.5$56.2$72.9$89.7'21'22'23'24'25'26CTSHVI $32.3 · MdS -26%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

Where does the value come from?

🏛️

Established business paying dividends

$29.50

per share

How it's calculated

💰

Free cash flow per share

normalized free cash flow

$5.31
×
📐

Multiplier

years of discounted cash flows

5.6x
=
🏢

Business value

without cash

$29.50

Cognizant — high assistant path (2026-06-06). Review note.

🏦

Net cash in the bank

cash minus financial debt, per share

+$2.78

Total calculated value

business + cash

$32.28

How many times the cash flow

Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers

You pay today
7.7x
Sector median
25.8x
Charlie: worth
5.6x

You pay 7.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.

27% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (5.6x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.

Why Overvalued?

Its free cash flow is $5.31/share × 5.6x multiplier plus $2.78 in net cash = $32.28 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $43.78 is 26% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.

⚠️

The price is 36% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.

⚠️

Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.

💡

The next reasonable entry zone starts at $30.67.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$25.82

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$30.67

-5% off Value

🔴 Today

$43.78

-26% Valor

🔴

Overvalued

The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

An army of Indian engineers rented by the hour; the cheap guy always finds a rival.

Cognizant sells IT services and consulting: systems modernization, business process management, and outsourcing for banking, healthcare, and retail. It charges per project and via multi-year managed-service contracts, billing $21.1B in 2025. The 34% gross margin gives away the business: labor-intensive, mostly in India.

Its edge is switching costs and long relationships with clients who've already woven Cognizant into their critical operations. But there's no real moat: it goes head-to-head with Accenture, Infosys, and TCS, all with the same labor-arbitrage model. When your edge is being cheap, someone can always be cheaper.

Revenue history

$18.5B
2021
$19.4B
2022
$19.4B
2023
$19.7B
2024
$21.1B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +3%

From $18.5B to $21.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $21.1B · FY2025

Cost of sales$14.0B · 66%
Operations$3.7B · 18%
Taxes and other$1.2B · 6%
Net profit$2.2B · 11%

Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Revenue grew to $21.1B in 2025, recovering growth after years stuck around ~$19.4B.

FCF of $2.6B on $2.2B of net income: it turns profit into real cash, backing the dividend.

Clean balance sheet — $1.9B cash against $0.5B debt — leaves room for buybacks and bolt-on acquisitions.

⚠️

Generative AI directly threatens the billable-hours model: it automates exactly what Cognizant sells.

⚠️

Structural growth of 3%: it's a mature business competing on price, not differentiation.

⚠️

Dependence on banking and healthcare — an IT spending cut from those clients hits revenue immediately.

Charlie's note

A decent business at a sensible price, not a gem. AI could eat the hours model or multiply its productivity — nobody knows yet. At 5.56x FCF you get paid to wait; just make sure you don't confuse cheap with good.

Analysis · June 2026

So when would be a good price for Cognizant?

By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $30.67 — so you do not have to keep checking.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.