CVX
Chevron
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 30/100Price today
$192.43
what the market pays
Worth
$112.66
calculated cycle value
Price is 71% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$134.09
per share
How it's calculated
Supermajor #2. 38 years of dividends. Hess acquisition. ND 1.3x. Oil cycle. WAIT.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 23.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
37% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (15x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $8.94/share × 15.0x multiplier minus $21.43 in negative net cash = $112.66 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $192.43 is 41% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 71% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $107.03.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$90.13
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$107.03
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$192.43
-42% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Chevron is a discipline refinery: it pumps cheap barrels and weathers storms.
Integrated supermajor: extracts crude and gas, refines them and sells them. Permian and Kazakhstan are the heart of upstream; downstream and chemicals smooth out the cycle.
Scale, low-extraction-cost reserves and a balance sheet that holds up with crude at $50. It's not a structural moat, it's capital discipline built up over decades. Replicating it takes time, not money.
Revenue history
From $94.5B to $202.8B in 4 years — nearly 2.1x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $189.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $93 goes to costs and operations; $7 is left as net profit (7% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Hess closing: access to Stabroek (Guyana), one of the cheapest barrels in the world.
38 years of raising the dividend; payout sustainable with Brent above $60.
Permian production targeting 1 MMboe/d by 2025.
Crude price: FCF moves with Brent, not with Excel.
Arbitration with ExxonMobil over 30% of Stabroek could break the Hess thesis.
Energy transition compresses terminal multiples even if cash flow holds.
Charlie's note
“Decent business at a decent price. The signal says wait and so do I: oil is bought when nobody wants it, and right now too many people want it.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Chevron?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $107.03 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.