CVX
Chevron
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 29/100Price today
$208.60
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What this business is made of
The business
Chevron is a discipline refinery: it pumps cheap barrels and weathers storms.
Integrated supermajor: extracts crude and gas, refines them and sells them. Permian and Kazakhstan are the heart of upstream; downstream and chemicals smooth out the cycle.
Scale, low-extraction-cost reserves and a balance sheet that holds up with crude at $50. It's not a structural moat, it's capital discipline built up over decades. Replicating it takes time, not money.
Revenue history
From $94.5B to $202.8B in 4 years — nearly 2.1x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $189.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $93 goes to costs and operations; $7 is left as net profit (7% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Hess closing: access to Stabroek (Guyana), one of the cheapest barrels in the world.
38 years of raising the dividend; payout sustainable with Brent above $60.
Permian production targeting 1 MMboe/d by 2025.
Crude price: FCF moves with Brent, not with Excel.
Arbitration with ExxonMobil over 30% of Stabroek could break the Hess thesis.
Energy transition compresses terminal multiples even if cash flow holds.
Charlie's note
“Decent business at a decent price. The signal says wait and so do I: oil is bought when nobody wants it, and right now too many people want it.”
Analysis · May 2026
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