DIS
Walt Disney
Content / Subscription
★ Quality 15/100Price today
$96.67
what the market pays
Worth
$50.48
calculated cycle value
Price is 92% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Content and entertainment
$70.54
per share
How it's calculated
Content + Parks + ESPN. D+ profitable. Debt $32B. New CEO D'Amaro. Parks capex $60B+ 10-year plan. WAIT.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Content / Subscription · vs 6 peers
You pay 16.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 17.4x.
39% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $7.05/share × 10.0x multiplier minus $20.06 in negative net cash = $50.48 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $96.67 is 48% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 92% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $47.96.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$40.38
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$47.96
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$96.67
-48% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Disney charges for the same characters across movies, parks, and streaming, decade after decade.
Disney makes money three ways: streaming (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN), its theme parks and cruises, and licensing its content. Today the parks are the profit machine; streaming just started turning a profit. It brought in $94.4B in the last fiscal year.
A century of characters that never age: Mickey, Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar. The parks are nearly impossible to copy — they demand a decade-plus investment plan. Streaming, on the other hand, is a war with no moat: Netflix hits just as hard there.
Revenue history
From $67.4B to $94.4B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $94.4B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Disney+ has reached operating profitability after years of losses.
Parks investment plan of over $60B across ten years.
Launch of ESPN direct-to-consumer by subscription.
Debt of $42B against just $5.7B in cash.
Parks suffer in a recession: people cut vacations first.
Traditional cable is bleeding out and dragging linear ESPN down with it.
Charlie's note
“At 10x free cash flow you're paying for a library of characters that never expires, plus parks that devour capital. 8% growth is fine, but with the debt and ESPN shedding its skin, this is a business to sit and wait on, not to rush into.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Walt Disney?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $47.96 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.