DOW
Dow Inc.
Cyclical Commodities
★ Quality 5/100Price today
$29.44
This company value is already calculated
We know what it is worth from its audited numbers, and whether it trades above or below that today. Create your free account to see it.
See what it is worthcharlieapp.co
What this business is made of
The business
Dow sells chemicals by the ton: the market sets the price, not Dow.
Dow makes basic chemicals: plastics (polyethylene), silicones, polyurethanes, and industrial materials. It sells commodities at scale — packaging, cars, construction, hygiene. The market sets the price, not Dow. Revenue 2025: $40.0B, gross margins of 6%.
Scale and vertically integrated plants that lower cost per ton. But a basic chemical is a basic chemical: the customer buys from whoever's cheapest. With no pricing power, the moat is about cost, not brand.
Revenue history
From $55.0B to $40.0B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Catalysts and risks
Recovery of the petrochemical cycle: polyethylene spreads at lows since 2024, mean-reversion possible 2026-2027.
Path2Zero project in Alberta (~$6.5B): first net-zero cracker, startup expected 2027-2029.
Dividend cut or asset sale to defend the $3.8B in cash against $17.8B in debt.
Negative FCF: -$1.4B in 2025. The dividend is not covered by free cash flow.
Leverage: $17.8B in debt against $3.8B in cash, in a cyclical business already at the trough.
Global ethylene overcapacity, especially from China and the Middle East, pressures margins for years.
Charlie's note
“Selling a commodity with no pricing power, high debt, and negative FCF — that's not a business, it's a bet on the cycle. Buy this only if you believe petrochemicals are bottoming out, and be ready to wait it out.”
Analysis · June 2026
Want to follow Dow Inc.?
We do not calculate a value here: Dow Inc. does not generate cash flows you can project, and putting a number on it would be making it up. What you can do is follow it and tell us the price you care about — we will email you when it gets there.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.