DOW
Dow Inc.
Cyclical Commodities
★ Quality 13/100Price today
$31.29
what the market pays
Worth
$19.81
calculated cycle value
Price is 58% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $19.81 per share. Today's price of $31.29 is 37% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 58% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $18.82.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$15.85
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$18.82
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$31.29
-37% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Dow sells chemicals by the ton: the market sets the price, not Dow.
Dow makes basic chemicals: plastics (polyethylene), silicones, polyurethanes, and industrial materials. It sells commodities at scale — packaging, cars, construction, hygiene. The market sets the price, not Dow. Revenue 2025: $40.0B, gross margins of 6%.
Scale and vertically integrated plants that lower cost per ton. But a basic chemical is a basic chemical: the customer buys from whoever's cheapest. With no pricing power, the moat is about cost, not brand.
Revenue history
From $55.0B to $40.0B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Catalysts and risks
Recovery of the petrochemical cycle: polyethylene spreads at lows since 2024, mean-reversion possible 2026-2027.
Path2Zero project in Alberta (~$6.5B): first net-zero cracker, startup expected 2027-2029.
Dividend cut or asset sale to defend the $3.8B in cash against $17.8B in debt.
Negative FCF: -$1.4B in 2025. The dividend is not covered by free cash flow.
Leverage: $17.8B in debt against $3.8B in cash, in a cyclical business already at the trough.
Global ethylene overcapacity, especially from China and the Middle East, pressures margins for years.
Charlie's note
“Selling a commodity with no pricing power, high debt, and negative FCF — that's not a business, it's a bet on the cycle. Buy this only if you believe petrochemicals are bottoming out, and be ready to wait it out.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Dow Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $18.82 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.