EBAY
eBay Inc.
Platform / Network
★ Quality 47/100Price today
$112.67
what the market pays
Worth
$27.66
calculated cycle value
Price is 307% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$36.48
per share
How it's calculated
eBay Inc. — high assistant route (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 37x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
70% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (11.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $3.29/share × 11.1x multiplier minus $8.82 in negative net cash = $27.66 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $112.67 is 75% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 307% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $26.28.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$22.13
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$26.28
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$112.67
-76% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
eBay is the global flea market for the long tail that Amazon doesn't have.
eBay runs a global marketplace where buyers and sellers transact without the company holding inventory. It charges per-sale commissions (take rate) plus advertising and managed payments; in 2025 it moved ~$75B in GMV to generate $11.1B in revenue. The margin engine sits in its 'focus' categories: collectibles, auto parts, certified luxury.
The network effect exists but is eroded: more sellers attract more buyers, except that Amazon and Shopify already capture the mass buyer. What's defensible is the unique secondhand and niche inventory —a Pokémon card or a 1998 bumper isn't on Amazon. That long tail is hard to replicate; the rest, not so much.
Revenue history
From $10.4B to $11.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $11.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Expansion of 'focus' categories (collectibles, luxury) growing double digit vs. ~2% for the consolidated business.
Aggressive buybacks: with FCF of $1.4B and contained market cap, it reduces shares every quarter.
Ad monetization: advertising already tops $1.4B annually and is rising as a % of GMV.
Structural growth of 2% — this is a business that defends, not one that conquers.
Debt of $6.0B against cash of $1.9B; a negative net position that limits flexibility.
Competition from Amazon, Shopify, and vertical platforms (StockX, Vinted) eating its niches one by one.
Charlie's note
“It's a good cash machine tied to a business that stopped growing a decade ago. At 11x FCF they pay you for patience, not for the dream. I'd pay for the flow, never for the story.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for eBay Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $26.28 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.