EC
Ecopetrol
Cyclical Commodities
Price today
$16.99
what the market pays
Worth
$8.21
calculated cycle value
Price is 107% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Cyclical Commodities · vs 6 peers
You pay 17.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 23.9x.
30% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (12.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $8.21 per share. Today's price of $16.99 is 52% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 107% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $7.80.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$6.57
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$7.80
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$16.99
-52% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
An oil company where the politician in Bogotá calls more shots than the geologist.
Ecopetrol extracts, refines, and sells crude and derivatives, mainly in Colombia. It charges per barrel sold at the international price, so its revenue rises and falls with oil. It also owns ISA, which moves electricity across Latin America and provides steadier cash.
Reserves and internal transport infrastructure give it an edge in Colombia, but oil is a commodity: nobody pays extra for its brand. The real moat is geographic and regulatory, not quality. ISA is the hidden gem with regulated, predictable revenue.
Revenue history
From $42.0B to $31.0B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Catalysts and risks
ISA provides stable regulated flow that the market still doesn't value separately.
Dividend near 4.2% supported by free cash flow of ~$3.2B.
Any sustained rise in Brent crude multiplies earnings quickly.
The government controls 88.5%: it decides dividends and strategy based on politics, not shareholders.
Net debt of 2.1x EBITDA limits room to maneuver if oil falls.
Energy transition and political pressure against new exploration in Colombia.
Charlie's note
“Paying well above a 3.5x EV/EBITDA anchor for a cyclical business growing at 3% and answering to a political owner is expensive optimism. Quality doesn't justify the multiple.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Ecopetrol?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $7.80 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.