ECL
Ecolab
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 48/100Price today
$265.65
what the market pays
Worth
$109.94
calculated cycle value
Price is 142% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$133.50
per share
How it's calculated
Ecolab — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 36.2x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
54% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (16.7x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $7.99/share × 16.7x multiplier minus $23.56 in negative net cash = $109.94 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $265.65 is 59% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 142% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $104.44.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$87.95
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$104.44
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$265.65
-59% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Ecolab is the anti-contamination insurance no manager dares to cancel.
Ecolab sells water, hygiene, and infection prevention to hotels, hospitals, food plants, and factories. It doesn't sell loose chemicals: it sells the whole system —dispensers, sensors, on-site technical service— and charges to keep your operation clean and your water optimized. $16.1B in revenue in 2025, gross margins of 44%.
The moat is switching costs, not the chemistry. Its teams live inside the client's facilities, calibrating doses and auditing consumption. Switching providers means risking contamination or a health shutdown to save pennies. Nobody does it. That explains the retention, but it's not an impenetrable moat: there are serious competitors.
Revenue history
From $12.7B to $16.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $16.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Water business growing double digits; goal to double the division's sales by 2030.
Margin expansion: prices indexed to inflation with input costs normalizing since 2023.
Normalized FCF of $7.99 per share supports growing dividends —33 consecutive years of increases.
Debt of $7.4B against just $0.6B in cash: little room if rates rise or FCF falls.
Cyclical demand in industrial and manufacturing; a recession hits volumes directly.
Intrinsic value $109.95 leaves a slim MoS (margin of safety) at the current price; you pay for quality, not for a discount.
Charlie's note
“A good, boring business that charges a toll to keep you clean. The problem isn't the company, it's the price: buying quality with no discount limits your future return. I'd wait for the market to have a bad day.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Ecolab?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $104.44 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.