EFX
Equifax
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 38/100Price today
$171.36
what the market pays
Worth
$146.07
calculated cycle value
Price is 17% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$185.82
per share
How it's calculated
Equifax — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 23.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 20.3x.
12% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (20.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $9.14/share × 20.3x multiplier minus $39.75 in negative net cash = $146.07 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $171.36 is 15% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 17% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $138.77.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$116.86
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$138.77
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$171.36
-15% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Equifax keeps your financial past and rents it out to whoever decides your future.
Equifax is one of the three big credit bureaus. It collects financial histories on hundreds of millions of people and companies, and sells them to banks, insurers and employers every time someone applies for a loan or a job. 2025 revenue: $6.1B, with 56% gross margin.
The data is the moat. No one can recreate decades of credit histories from scratch, and regulation makes entry more expensive. The Workforce Solutions segment —employment and income verification via The Work Number— holds data no competitor owns. It's a three-way oligopoly, not a free market.
Revenue history
From $4.9B to $6.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $6.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $89 goes to costs and operations; $11 is left as net profit (11% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Workforce Solutions is growing double digits and already accounts for ~40% of revenue; mortgage verification recovers if rates drop in 2026.
End of the cloud capex cycle (~$1.5B invested): FCF should expand toward 2026-2027 as infrastructure spending falls.
Recovery of the U.S. mortgage market from multi-year lows directly leverages revenue.
$5.1B of debt against $0.2B of cash: little cushion if rates stay high and cyclical revenue weakens.
Revenue tied to the credit and mortgage cycle; in a recession, fewer loans means fewer inquiries.
Data breach risk is ever-present: the 2017 hack cost over $1.4B. They safeguard sensitive data on half the country.
Charlie's note
“A data oligopoly no one can recreate, with 56% margins that reveal the moat; but at 20x for a business growing 5%, you're paying upfront for years of quality. Excellent business, a multiple that demands patience.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Equifax?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $138.77 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.