EMR
Emerson Electric
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 26/100Price today
$140.59
what the market pays
Worth
$53.61
calculated cycle value
Price is 162% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$69.36
per share
How it's calculated
Emerson Electric — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 33.2x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.
56% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (14.7x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $4.71/share × 14.7x multiplier minus $15.75 in negative net cash = $53.61 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $140.59 is 62% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 162% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $50.93.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$42.89
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$50.93
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$140.59
-62% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Emerson is the nervous system of the refinery: you can't start it up without shutting it down.
Emerson sells industrial automation: software, instruments and control systems that keep refineries, chemical plants and factories running. It charges for equipment and, increasingly, for recurring software via AspenTech and National Instruments. FY2025: $18.0B in sales, 53% gross margin, FCF of $2.7B.
Process control is embedded in plants that run for 30 years; switching providers means halting production and risking safety. That exit friction and installed base generate recurring service revenue. It's not a monopoly: Siemens, ABB and Honeywell fight for the same ground.
Revenue history
From $15.6B to $18.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $18.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Integration of AspenTech and NI: target of software/digital above 25% of sales, with margins higher than hardware.
Buybacks and dividend: 68 consecutive years raising the dividend, steady capital returned.
Capex in electrification, LNG and semiconductors through 2027 feeds the automation backlog.
Cyclicality: sales tied to energy and chemical capex; an industrial recession hits directly.
Debt of $8.9B and near-zero cash after the acquisition wave — little cushion if rates rise.
Digesting NI and AspenTech: big integrations destroy value when they go wrong.
Charlie's note
“Paying 19.58x for a business that grows 55% with a 53% gross margin and switching costs embedded in plants that last 30 years is a sensible multiple for a real moat — not perfect but genuine. Patience rewards the one who waits for the moment, not the one who chases the rush.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Emerson Electric?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $50.93 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.