EPAM
EPAM Systems
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 10/100Price today
$105.18
what the market pays
Worth
$85.91
calculated cycle value
Price is 22% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$63.31
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 35 peers
You pay 7.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 36.4x.
24% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (5.8x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 5.8x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 36.4x. This one drops from there:
AI disruption risk. its business could be eroded by AI over the long run.
External cyclicality. it depends on a cycle (rates, recession) it doesn't control.
Grows 10% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 5.8x, less than the 36.4x average.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $10.90/share × 5.8x multiplier plus $22.60 in net cash = $85.91 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $105.18 is 18% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 22% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $81.61.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$68.73
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$81.61
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$105.18
-18% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Alquila cerebros de ingeniería por hora para que otros construyan su software.
EPAM diseña y programa software a medida para grandes empresas: bancos, aseguradoras, aerolíneas, medios. Cobra por proyecto y por horas facturables de sus ingenieros. Facturó $5.5B en 2025, con márgenes brutos de 29% —típicos de un negocio que vende talento, no licencias.
Sus ingenieros se incrustan en los equipos del cliente y aprenden sus sistemas por dentro, lo que hace incómodo cambiarlos. Pero al final es un negocio de servicios: compite por costo de mano de obra y no tiene una ventaja estructural difícil de copiar. Por eso el foso es real pero estrecho.
Revenue history
From $3.8B to $5.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $5.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $93 goes to costs and operations; $7 is left as net profit (7% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Ingresos de vuelta al crecimiento en 2025: +~10% tras dos años planos.
Demanda de modernización con IA generativa para reescribir sistemas viejos.
Diversificación de talento hacia India y Latinoamérica, reduciendo el peso de Europa del Este.
Herencia de talento concentrado en Ucrania, Bielorrusia y Rusia; la reubicación amortigua, no elimina el riesgo geopolítico.
Negocio cíclico: cuando la economía aprieta, los clientes recortan primero los proyectos tecnológicos discrecionales.
La misma IA que trae demanda puede reducir las horas humanas de programación que factura.
Charlie's note
“Un negocio decente sin foso profundo merece un múltiplo sobrio, y a ~5.8x el flujo de caja con crecimiento de 10% no se le está pidiendo heroísmo. El peligro es pagar como si tuviera monopolio a un vendedor de horas: ahí es donde uno se hace daño solo.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for EPAM Systems?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $81.61 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.