EXPE
Expedia Group
Platform / Network
★ Quality 29/100Price today
$264.70
what the market pays
Worth
$357.32
calculated cycle value
Price is 26% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$362.99
per share
How it's calculated
Expedia Group — assistant flagged (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 11.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 28.5x.
34% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (15.4x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $23.57/share × 15.4x multiplier minus $5.67 in negative net cash = $357.32 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $264.70 is 35% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 26% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $285.86.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$285.86
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$339.45
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$264.70
+35% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Expedia charges a toll on every hotel night booked on its platform.
Expedia runs the plumbing of online travel booking: Brand Expedia, Hotels.com and Vrbo. It charges a commission on every hotel night, flight or vacation rental booked through its platforms. In 2025 it moved $14.7B in revenue with 90% gross margin.
The moat is a two-sided network: the more hotels listed, the more travelers; the more travelers, the more hotels. But it shares that board with Booking, which plays better in Europe, and with Google, which sits between Expedia and the customer. It's a real advantage, not a fortress wall.
Revenue history
From $8.6B to $14.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $14.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $91 goes to costs and operations; $9 is left as net profit (9% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Vrbo and the consolidation of platforms onto a single technology should lift operating margin toward 2026.
Aggressive buybacks: with $5.4B in cash and FCF of $3.1B, cutting shares moves the FCFps of $23.57.
B2B program (Expedia for agencies and airlines) growing double digit, less dependent on direct marketing.
Google Travel can disintermediate: if it captures the search, Expedia pays a toll on its own traffic.
Booking has more scale and better economics; in a marketing war, Expedia loses first.
Ad spend to acquire customers is huge and recurring — the customer isn't really loyal.
Charlie's note
“A good business caught between a European giant and Google. It generates real cash and trades at a discount, but paying a toll to your own customer supplier isn't where I want to grow old.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Expedia Group?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.