FAST
Fastenal
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 83/100Price today
$45.36
what the market pays
Worth
$22.14
calculated cycle value
Price is 105% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$22.01
per share
How it's calculated
Fastenal — high assistant pathway (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 46.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
51% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (22.7x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $0.97/share × 22.7x multiplier plus $0.13 in net cash = $22.14 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $45.36 is 51% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 105% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $21.03.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$17.71
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$21.03
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$45.36
-51% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Fastenal puts its warehouse inside your factory, and then you never leave.
Fastenal distributes industrial fasteners, tools, and MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) supplies to manufacturers and construction firms. It charges per product, but the real business is its vending machines and Onsite warehouses inside the customer's factories: $8.2B in revenue in 2025 with a 45% gross margin.
The moat lives in the logistics, not in the screw. By installing vending machines and warehouses inside the customer's plant, Fastenal becomes the default supplier and lowers the cost of switching. Replicating that network of thousands of local points of sale takes decades, not capital.
Revenue history
From $6.0B to $8.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $8.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $85 goes to costs and operations; $15 is left as net profit (15% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Growth in vending devices and Onsite contracts, the engine behind the estimated 8% CAGR.
FCF of $1.1B with a nearly debt-free balance sheet ($0.1B): room to raise the dividend year after year.
U.S. industrial reshoring driving MRO demand through 2026.
Cyclical business tied to industrial production: a manufacturing recession hits revenue directly.
No real monopoly — it competes with Grainger, MSC, and Amazon Business on price.
At $17.46 of intrinsic value versus market multiples, overpaying kills the return even if the business is good.
Charlie's note
“A boring business that prints cash selling screws — exactly what I like. The problem is never Fastenal; it's the price the market asks you to pay for it.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Fastenal?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $21.03 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.