FCX

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan

Cyclical Commodities

★ Quality 41/100
Overvalued

Price today

$72.73

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charlieapp.co

What this business is made of

41qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

The business

Owner of one of the best rocks on the planet, at market price.

Freeport-McMoRan mines copper, gold, and molybdenum. Its crown jewels are Grasberg in Indonesia and mines across the Americas. It gets the spot price of copper per pound — no pricing power, just volume and cost. Revenue 2025: $25.9B.

The moat isn't the company, it's the geology. Grasberg is one of the largest copper and gold deposits on the planet, and nobody builds a mine like that from scratch — decades and billions of dollars. That said, it sells a commodity: the market sets the price, not Freeport.

Revenue history

$22.8B
2021
$22.8B
2022
$22.9B
2023
$25.5B
2024
$25.9B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +3%

From $22.8B to $25.9B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $25.9B · FY2025

Cost of sales$18.6B · 72%
Operations$779M · 3%
Taxes and other$4.3B · 17%
Net profit$2.2B · 9%

Of every $100 in sales, $91 goes to costs and operations; $9 is left as net profit (9% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Energy transition: every electric car uses ~3.5x more copper than a combustion one.

Grasberg contract with Indonesia runs through 2041, securing the flagship mine.

Leaching expansion aims to add ~800M pounds of copper per year at low capital cost.

⚠️

FCF of just $1.1B and Net Income at zero — the copper cycle punishes without warning.

⚠️

Debt $9.4B against cash $3.8B: uncomfortable leverage in a price downturn.

⚠️

Indonesia controls Grasberg via state majority; regulatory risk is permanent.

Charlie's note

Paying nearly 7x for a business that doesn't set its own prices and grows at 3% is prudent: Grasberg's geology is irreplaceable, but a 28% margin is a reminder that copper and patience run the show here, not management.

Analysis · June 2026

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