FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
Cyclical Commodities
★ Quality 41/100Price today
$64.12
what the market pays
Worth
$12.39
calculated cycle value
Price is 417% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Cyclical Commodities · vs 6 peers
You pay 29.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 18x.
76% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (7x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $12.39 per share. Today's price of $64.12 is 81% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 417% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $11.77.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$9.91
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$11.77
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$64.12
-81% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Owner of one of the best rocks on the planet, at market price.
Freeport-McMoRan mines copper, gold, and molybdenum. Its crown jewels are Grasberg in Indonesia and mines across the Americas. It gets the spot price of copper per pound — no pricing power, just volume and cost. Revenue 2025: $25.9B.
The moat isn't the company, it's the geology. Grasberg is one of the largest copper and gold deposits on the planet, and nobody builds a mine like that from scratch — decades and billions of dollars. That said, it sells a commodity: the market sets the price, not Freeport.
Revenue history
From $22.8B to $25.9B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $25.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $91 goes to costs and operations; $9 is left as net profit (9% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Energy transition: every electric car uses ~3.5x more copper than a combustion one.
Grasberg contract with Indonesia runs through 2041, securing the flagship mine.
Leaching expansion aims to add ~800M pounds of copper per year at low capital cost.
FCF of just $1.1B and Net Income at zero — the copper cycle punishes without warning.
Debt $9.4B against cash $3.8B: uncomfortable leverage in a price downturn.
Indonesia controls Grasberg via state majority; regulatory risk is permanent.
Charlie's note
“Paying nearly 7x for a business that doesn't set its own prices and grows at 3% is prudent: Grasberg's geology is irreplaceable, but a 28% margin is a reminder that copper and patience run the show here, not management.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Freeport-McMoRan?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $11.77 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.