FMX
FEMSA
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 33/100Price today
$132.30
what the market pays
Worth
$144.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 8% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$155.68
per share
How it's calculated
Anchor EV/EBITDA 8x (EM holding — OXXO alone deserves 12-15x but Health/KOF are dilutive). IV $144. Heineken stake ~$19/ADS not counted (potential +13% IV). OXXO: 23K+ stores + 100% OXXO Brazil assumed. Health Division risk Colombia/Mexico. Trump tariffs = MXN/USD risk. BARGAIN <$115.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 12.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.
9% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (13.9x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Discounted?
Its free cash flow is $11.24/share × 13.9x multiplier minus $11.68 in negative net cash = $144.00 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $132.30 is 9% below value — a moderate discount, a good spot to enter gradually.
The price is 8% off the calculated value. Close, but without the ideal discount.
It's fine to buy in pieces. Monthly DCA works well here.
For a bigger safety margin, wait for $115.20 or less.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$115.20
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$136.80
-5% off Value
🟡 Today
$132.30
+9% Valor
Discounted
The price is close to value. There's no big discount, but it's reasonable to invest in pieces.
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Mexico's corner store owner: 23 thousand stores that never close.
FEMSA runs OXXO, the largest convenience store chain in Latin America, plus Coca-Cola distribution (via Coca-Cola FEMSA) and a pharmacy and fuel division. It earns pennies per transaction, but multiplied by billions of visits a year.
OXXO is a density network impossible to copy: every new store strengthens the logistics of the ones nearby. Coca-Cola FEMSA has exclusive bottling territories. It's a real moat, though not a monopoly: the pharmacy business is still fighting for its place.
Revenue history
From $35.0B to $43.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Catalysts and risks
OXXO expansion in Brazil, taking 100% control of the operation.
Heineken stake (~13% of value) still not reflected in the price.
OXXO passes 23 thousand stores with estimated growth of 8% per year.
The Health division (pharmacies) faces pressure in Colombia and Mexico.
Trump tariffs could hit the Mexican peso against the dollar.
It's a diversified holding: Health and the bottler dilute the multiple OXXO alone would deserve.
Charlie's note
“Paying less than 14x for a toll collector of 23 thousand corners, growing at 8% with 41% gross margin, is buying quality without paying for the party. The holding discount is your friend here.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for FEMSA?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.