GD
General Dynamics
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 49/100Price today
$373.10
what the market pays
Worth
$286.51
calculated cycle value
Price is 30% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$307.58
per share
How it's calculated
General Dynamics — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 25.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.
22% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (20x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $15.40/share × 20.0x multiplier minus $21.07 in negative net cash = $286.51 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $373.10 is 23% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 30% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $272.18.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$229.21
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$272.18
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$373.10
-23% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
One of only two shipyards the U.S. can use for nuclear submarines.
General Dynamics sells four things: Gulfstream jets, nuclear submarines, Abrams tanks, and IT services for the government. Of its $52.5B in 2025 revenue, half comes from the Pentagon and allies via multi-year contracts; Gulfstream charges millionaires and corporations for $45-80M planes. Backlog exceeds $90B — years of visibility.
Building Virginia-class and Columbia-class submarines is a two-member club in the U.S. Electric Boat has decades of know-how, irreplaceable shipyards, and the government as a captive customer that can't buy anywhere else. Gulfstream adds a luxury aviation brand with certification and service barriers that are hard to copy.
Revenue history
From $38.5B to $52.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $52.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $92 goes to costs and operations; $8 is left as net profit (8% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Columbia-class submarine production ramp toward ~$10B+ annually in Marine Systems this decade.
Gulfstream G700 and G800 deliveries accelerating Aerospace revenue in 2025-2026.
U.S. defense budget near $900B sustains the $90B+ backlog.
No real monopoly moat outside submarines; tanks and IT face competition and price pressure.
Defense programs suffer delays and cost overruns — profitability can evaporate on a bad contract.
Gulfstream is cyclical: in a recession, private jets are the first thing to get canceled.
Charlie's note
“At nearly 20x for a business growing 8%, you pay a sensible price for a submarine moat only two companies in the country can dig, plus a jet brand nobody certifies overnight. Quality to spare; the only risk is getting impatient before the backlog does its job.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for General Dynamics?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $272.18 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.