GEV

GEV

GE Vernova

Hybrid Industrial

★ Quality 31/100
Overvalued

Price today

$989.30

what the market pays

Worth

$163.47

calculated cycle value

Worth $163.47price today $989.30

Price is 505% above its value

charlieapp.co

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$115$380$645$910$1.2k'24'25'26GEVVI $163 · MdS -84%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

Where does the value come from?

🏭

Manufacturing + technology

$163.47

per share

How it's calculated

💰

Free cash flow per share

normalized free cash flow

$15.84
×
📐

Multiplier

years of discounted cash flows

10.3x
=
🏢

Business value

without cash

$163.47

Total calculated value

business + cash

$163.47

How many times the cash flow

Hybrid Industrial · vs 35 peers

You pay today
62.5x
Sector median
35.5x
Charlie: worth
10.3x

You pay 62.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.

84% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.

Why Overvalued?

Its free cash flow is $15.84/share × 10.3x multiplier = $163.47 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $989.30 is 83% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.

⚠️

The price is 505% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.

⚠️

Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.

💡

The next reasonable entry zone starts at $155.30.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$130.78

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$155.30

-5% off Value

🔴 Today

$989.30

-84% Valor

🔴

Overvalued

The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

El pico y la pala del boom eléctrico: turbinas de gas para alimentar la IA.

GE Vernova fabrica turbinas de gas y eólicas, y equipos para modernizar la red eléctrica. Cobra dos veces: vende la máquina y luego décadas de contratos de servicio y repuestos sobre su base instalada, que ya mueve cerca de una cuarta parte de la electricidad del mundo. Ingresos de $38.1B y FCF de $3.7B en 2025.

La ventaja está en la base instalada de turbinas: una vez que compras la máquina, quedas atado a su servicio por 20 años. El negocio de gas pesado es un club de tres (GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi), difícil de entrar. Pero el margen bruto de 20% delata que no es un foso profundo — la eólica todavía sangra.

Revenue history

$29.7B
2022
$33.2B
2023
$34.9B
2024
$38.1B
2025
$41.5B
2026
CAGR 5 años: +9%

From $29.7B to $41.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $38.1B · FY2025

Cost of sales$30.5B · 80%
Operations and taxes$2.7B · 7%
Net profit$4.9B · 13%

Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Demanda eléctrica de los centros de datos de IA disparando pedidos de turbinas de gas; cartera de pedidos récord cerca de $120B.

El segmento eólico saliendo de pérdidas hacia terreno rentable.

Ola global de inversión en modernización de redes eléctricas (electrificación).

⚠️

Margen bruto de 20%: colchón delgado para un negocio de equipos complejos.

⚠️

El negocio eólico sigue perdiendo dinero y arrastra los resultados.

⚠️

Bienes de capital cíclicos: si se enfría la inversión energética, los pedidos caen.

Charlie's note

El mercado paga por el sueño eléctrico de la IA, no por los números de hoy. Con margen de 20%, crecimiento de 9% y sin foso profundo, a más de 10x el flujo hay que creer mucho en que las turbinas cumplan lo prometido.

Analysis · July 2026

So when would be a good price for GE Vernova?

By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $155.30 — so you do not have to keep checking.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.