GOOG
Alphabet
Platform / Network
★ Quality 68/100Price today
$347.92
what the market pays
Worth
$252.89
calculated cycle value
Price is 38% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
Search · YouTube · Google Cloud
$246.53
per share
How it's calculated
AI capex $91B FY2025 depresses FCF. Normalized IV if capex earns ROI: ~$225-250.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 29.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
28% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (21x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $11.74/share × 21.0x multiplier plus $6.36 in net cash = $252.89 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $347.92 is 27% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 38% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $240.25.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$202.31
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$240.25
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$347.92
-27% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The world asks, Google answers — and charges the advertiser next door.
Alphabet earns nearly three-quarters of its revenue selling ads on Search and YouTube, auctioning each slot to the highest bidder per click or impression. The rest comes from Google Cloud, Android, and the Play store. In 2025 it booked $402.8B with 60% gross margin and $132.2B in net income.
Search handles more than 90% of the world's queries: the more users, the better the results, and better results bring more users. Its distribution through Chrome and Android makes it the default on nearly every screen. The advantage is real, but not untouchable: generative AI could change how people search.
Revenue history
From $257.6B to $402.8B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $402.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $67 goes to costs and operations; $33 is left as net profit (33% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Google Cloud grows ~30% annually and now runs at a sustained profit.
The $91B in AI capex in 2025 normalizes cash flow if it earns a return.
Gemini integrated into Search and Workspace opens new monetization.
The $91B in AI capex depresses free cash flow today.
ChatGPT and conversational search threaten the heart of the ad business.
The DOJ antitrust case could force distribution changes or asset sales.
Charlie's note
“Paying 21 times cash flow for a business growing 15% with 60% margins is a sensible deal, not a reckless one. The AI capex spooks the market today, but a machine that prints money while it invests doesn't ask for pity; the real danger is AI pulling the chair out from under search.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Alphabet?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $240.25 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.