GRAB
Grab Holdings
Platform / Network
★ Quality 29/100Price today
$3.49
what the market pays
Worth
$2.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 74% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$0.61
per share
How it's calculated
SEA super-app. First GAAP profitable year 2025. Minimal FCF. Cash $5.5B. WAIT. INTEREST <$3.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 29.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
71% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (8.7x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $0.07/share × 14.0x multiplier plus $1.39 in net cash = $2.00 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $3.49 is 43% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 74% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $1.90.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$1.60
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$1.90
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$3.49
-43% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Grab takes a toll on every ride and every meal in Southeast Asia.
Southeast Asian super-app: ride-hailing, delivery, and financial services across 8 countries. Charges a commission per transaction (15-25% to drivers/merchants) plus interest in its digital bank arm. GMV ~$18B annually.
Dense network of drivers, users, and merchants in fragmented markets where Uber gave up. The network effect is real, but it competes against GoTo, Foodpanda, and local banks. Regional moat, not global.
Revenue history
From $0.5B to $2.8B in 4 years — nearly 5.6x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $3.4B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $94 goes to costs and operations; $6 is left as net profit (6% margin).
Catalysts and risks
First GAAP profitable year in 2025 after a decade of burning cash.
$5.5B in cash to defend itself or consolidate competition.
Digibank in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia scaling toward break-even.
FCF per share of $0.07 — profitability is still symbolic.
Fierce competition with GoTo in Indonesia, its biggest market.
Shifting regulation in each of the 8 countries where it operates.
Charlie's note
“Paying 14x for a business growing at 17% with a 40% gross margin is sensible: the regional network effect is real where Uber threw in the towel, though GoTo and local banks are a reminder that the moat is geographic, not eternal. At this multiple no heroics are needed, just patience for network density to translate into commission discipline.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Grab Holdings?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $1.90 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.