GWW
W. W. Grainger
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 64/100Price today
$1,366
what the market pays
Worth
$620.66
calculated cycle value
Price is 120% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$660.31
per share
How it's calculated
W. W. Grainger — high assistant lane (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 40.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 33.7x.
53% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (18.8x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $35.10/share × 18.8x multiplier minus $39.65 in negative net cash = $620.66 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $1,366.50 is 55% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 120% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $589.63.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$496.53
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$589.63
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$1,366.50
-55% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Grainger is the spare-parts ambulance: your factory stops, they show up today.
Grainger distributes MRO products —maintenance, repair, and operations— to more than 4.5 million industrial customers in the U.S. It charges for selling screws, safety equipment, motors, and a million SKUs when something breaks and you need the part today. Revenue of $17.9B in 2025, gross margins of 39%.
It's not product, it's logistics and availability. When a factory stops over a $20 part, the customer pays to have it in hours, not for the price. That distribution network, inventory data, and decades-long relationships with industrial buyers are expensive to replicate, though Amazon Business is breathing down its neck.
Revenue history
From $15.2B to $19.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $17.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $90 goes to costs and operations; $10 is left as net profit (10% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Endless assortment segment (Zoro/MonotaRO) growing double digits, scaling toward structural profitability.
Operating margin expansion via pricing and productivity, aiming to sustain ~15% operating margin in 2026.
Aggressive buybacks: Grainger has consistently reduced its share count, amplifying FCFps.
Amazon Business and digital distributors pressure price and transparency in a business where the moat is defensible, not impregnable.
Demand tied to the industrial cycle: a U.S. manufacturing recession hits direct volume.
FCF of $1.3B against Net Income of $1.7B —cash conversion deserves watching, it's not a pure cash machine.
Charlie's note
“Quality business —logistics hard to replicate, margins of 39%—, but at 18.81x with 8% growth you pay for the certainty, not for the discount. Patience decides whether the multiple deserves the moat.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for W. W. Grainger?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $589.63 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.