HON
Honeywell
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 45/100Price today
$237.21
what the market pays
Worth
$93.22
calculated cycle value
Price is 154% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$117.13
per share
How it's calculated
Honeywell — high assistant path (2026-06-06). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 29.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.
55% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (13.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $8.85/share × 13.2x multiplier minus $23.91 in negative net cash = $93.22 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $237.21 is 61% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 154% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $88.56.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$74.58
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$88.56
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$237.21
-61% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sells the plane cheap and charges for the parts for decades.
Honeywell sells industrial automation, aerospace, control materials, and energy solutions. It charges for equipment, embedded software, and recurring service contracts — the long-tail parts and maintenance are worth more than the initial sale. 2025 revenue: $37.4B spread across four diversified segments.
The real moat is in aerospace: once your avionics fly in a fleet, certification and switching costs lock in decades of parts. The rest of the conglomerate competes in fragmented markets with no obvious moat. That's why the model flags it as a non-dominant moat.
Revenue history
From $35.5B to $38.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $37.4B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $87 goes to costs and operations; $13 is left as net profit (13% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Spin-off of Aerospace and Advanced Materials announced, expected to close in the second half of 2026.
FCF of $5.4B supports buybacks and dividend with $12.5B in cash available.
Post-pandemic aerospace cycle: engine and avionics aftermarket growing double digits.
Reported gross margin of 9% — thin industrial margins, little cushion against input inflation.
Debt of $27.1B against $12.5B in cash; the corporate split could leave stretched balance sheets.
Revenue CAGR of 2% — this grows at GDP pace, no faster.
Charlie's note
“You pay a bit over thirteen times earnings for a conglomerate growing at 2% with thin 9% gross margins; the only thing justifying the figure is the aerospace parts tail, but the rest competes without a moat. The right multiple demands patience, not enthusiasm.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Honeywell?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $88.56 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.