HOOD
Robinhood Markets
Cyclical Exchange
Price today
$106.78
what the market pays
Worth
$50.65
calculated cycle value
Price is 111% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $50.65 per share. Today's price of $106.78 is 53% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 111% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $48.12.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$40.52
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$48.12
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$106.78
-53% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Robinhood: the app that hooked a generation on investing.
Robinhood is a retail broker that monetizes via payment for order flow, interest on balances, and crypto. Today it's a financial SuperApp with $324B in customer assets, growing 70% year-over-year, adding cards, retirement, and staking.
Generational brand among millennials and Gen Z, with rock-bottom acquisition cost and an app that's still the most polished in retail. The moat is habit and UX, not structural cost — replicable in theory, hard in practice.
Revenue history
From $1.8B to $4.2B in 4 years — nearly 2.3x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $4.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $58 goes to costs and operations; $42 is left as net profit (42% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Platform assets $324B (+70% YoY) drive interest income and net deposits.
Bitstamp acquisition and expansion into Europe open a new institutional crypto TAM.
Robinhood Gold tops 3M subscribers, recurring revenue that dilutes cyclicality.
~15% of revenue comes from crypto: a drop in volumes hits P&L directly.
P/E 34x prices in perfect execution; a normalization of retail trading compresses the multiple.
PFOF regulation is still alive in the US and could force a redesign of the core economics.
Charlie's note
“You pay a demanding multiple for a business growing 70% and capturing the habit of an entire generation, but the moat is habit and design, not structure; the patience here is about waiting for the market to doubt a growth story that's still intact.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Robinhood Markets?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $48.12 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.