HSY
Hershey Company (The)
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 32/100Price today
$170.83
what the market pays
Worth
$54.29
calculated cycle value
Price is 215% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$77.37
per share
How it's calculated
Hershey Company (The) — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 21.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
60% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (8.6x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $8.99/share × 8.6x multiplier minus $23.08 in negative net cash = $54.29 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $170.83 is 68% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 215% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $51.58.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$43.43
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$51.58
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$170.83
-68% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Hershey owns the chocolate your tongue reaches for without asking you.
Hershey makes and sells chocolate and candy in North America: Reese's, Hershey's, Kit Kat (licensed), Twizzlers. It sold $11.7B in 2025, almost all through supermarkets and convenience stores. It's also pushing into salty snacks (SkinnyPop, Dot's).
Century-old brands bought with the tongue, not the head. Reese's is the number-one candy brand in the US, and nobody grows up wanting a different chocolate. It also controls distribution at the checkout counter — that square foot a rival can't buy.
Revenue history
From $9.0B to $11.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $11.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $92 goes to costs and operations; $8 is left as net profit (8% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Price hikes already offsetting record cocoa; 34% gross margin should recover as the bean price falls in 2026.
Normalized FCF of ~$1.8B supports a dividend they've raised 15 years straight.
Salty snack expansion: SkinnyPop and Dot's diversify away from sugar.
Cocoa at all-time highs is squeezing the gross margin; it already dropped from its historical ~45% to 34%.
GLP-1 drugs and the anti-sugar crusade could cut consumption over the long run.
$4.7B in debt with zero cash: little cushion if cocoa doesn't ease.
Charlie's note
“Paying 8.61x for brands bought with the tongue that own the square foot at the checkout counter is buying quality without overpaying; with a 34% gross margin and 7% growth, all it takes is patience for these century-old brands to do the work.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Hershey Company (The)?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $51.58 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.