HUBS
HUBS
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 40/100Price today
$235.84
what the market pays
Worth
$309.99
calculated cycle value
Price is 24% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$293.41
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 34 peers
You pay 16.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 21.5x.
34% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (22.1x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why does Charlie give it 22.1x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 21.5x. Here's how it moves:
84% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.
Grows 24% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 22.1x.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $13.30/share × 22.1x multiplier plus $16.58 in net cash = $309.99 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $235.84 is 31% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 24% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $247.99.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$247.99
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$294.49
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$235.84
+31% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
HubSpot: el software que la pyme instala y ya no sabe vivir sin él.
HubSpot vende una plataforma todo-en-uno para que pequeñas y medianas empresas manejen marketing, ventas y atención al cliente. Cobra por suscripción mensual o anual, y sube el ticket a medida que el cliente contrata más módulos y más usuarios. Facturó $3.1B en 2025 con 84% de margen bruto.
El foso son los costos de cambiar: una vez que tu empresa vive dentro de HubSpot, mudarte significa reconstruir todo. Su embudo gratuito atrae pymes que luego pagan y se quedan años. No es un castillo inexpugnable, pero cambiar de sistema duele lo suficiente como para que la mayoría no lo haga.
Revenue history
From $1.3B to $3.1B in 4 years — nearly 2.4x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $3.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $98 goes to costs and operations; $2 is left as net profit (2% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Breeze, su capa de inteligencia artificial, empuja ventas adicionales sobre unos 250.000 clientes.
Subida de mercado: más clientes medianos y más módulos contratados por cuenta.
Retención de ingresos por encima del 100% — el cliente promedio gasta más cada año.
Beneficio contable pegado a cero: la compensación en acciones se come casi todo y diluye al accionista.
Su cliente es la pyme, la primera en recortar software cuando la economía aprieta.
Salesforce y Microsoft empujan desde arriba con suites propias y bolsillos más hondos.
Charlie's note
“Pagar 22 veces flujo de caja por algo que compone al 24% con 84% de margen no es una locura. Lo incómodo es que el mercado pide bastante más de lo que el negocio vale hoy, y sin foso de castillo, más te vale que ese crecimiento no tosa.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for HUBS?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.