ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
Platform / Network
★ Quality 38/100Price today
$142.42
what the market pays
Worth
$98.81
calculated cycle value
Price is 44% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$129.72
per share
How it's calculated
Intercontinental Exchange — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 23.2x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 28.5x.
25% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (17.4x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $7.46/share × 17.4x multiplier minus $30.91 in negative net cash = $98.81 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $142.42 is 31% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 44% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $93.87.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$79.05
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$93.87
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$142.42
-31% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
ICE is the playground where liquidity plays with itself.
ICE collects tolls on three fronts: exchanges and derivatives (NYSE, energy and rate futures), recurring market data, and mortgage technology after swallowing Ellie Mae and Black Knight for ~$25B combined. Of the $12.6B in revenue, a growing share is recurring subscription, not just transaction volume.
Liquidity concentrates where liquidity already is — traders come to ICE because everyone else is there, and that reinforces itself. In mortgages, its software is embedded in the lender's workflow; switching is expensive and risky. You can't replicate thirty years of proprietary data with capital.
Revenue history
From $9.0B to $12.6B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $12.6B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $74 goes to costs and operations; $26 is left as net profit (26% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Synergies from the Black Knight integration ($11.7B, closed 2023); target of >$200M in costs.
Growth in recurring data revenue, today half the business and less cyclical.
Rate and energy volatility pushing record futures volumes during 2025-2026.
$18.6B in debt against just $0.8B in cash — leverage inherited from the acquisitions.
The mortgage business suffers when high rates freeze originations and refinancings.
Regulators and competitors watch closely the dominance in exchanges and control of data.
Charlie's note
“A toll machine disguised as a tech company. It collects every time someone trades, pulls a data point, or closes a mortgage — the kind of business I'd rather own while I sleep. The debt is the only thing I'd keep an eye on.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Intercontinental Exchange?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $93.87 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.