INTU
Intuit
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 69/100Price today
$294.50
what the market pays
Worth
$605.28
calculated cycle value
Price is 51% below its value
charlieapp.co
Unusually large discount. A gap this wide usually means the market is pricing in a risk (AI disruption, for example) that the model does not penalise. A contrarian opportunity: high upside, but high risk — not an obvious one.
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
TurboTax · QuickBooks · Credit Karma
$616.20
per share
How it's calculated
Intuit — high assistant lane (2026-06-06). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 14.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 21.9x.
102% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (28.5x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $21.64/share × 28.5x multiplier minus $10.92 in negative net cash = $605.28 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $294.50 is 106% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 51% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $484.22.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$484.22
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$575.02
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$294.50
+106% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
QuickBooks is the accounting operating system no small business dares to abandon.
Intuit sells subscription financial software: QuickBooks for small businesses, TurboTax for filing taxes, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp. It brought in $18.8B in FY2025, with FCF of $6.1B. Revenue is recurring and, in TurboTax, seasonally strong every U.S. tax season.
QuickBooks is the accounting operating system for millions of small businesses — leaving it means redoing all your bookkeeping, so almost nobody does. TurboTax dominates online tax filing in the U.S. with decades of data and taxpayer trust. Two near-monopolies feeding off each other's data.
Revenue history
From $9.6B to $18.8B in 4 years — nearly 2.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $18.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $79 goes to costs and operations; $21 is left as net profit (21% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Generative AI integration (Intuit Assist) to raise price per user without losing retention.
Cross-selling Credit Karma and Mailchimp into the installed QuickBooks base.
FCF growth near 18% CAGR sustained in enterprise subscriptions.
TurboTax depends on the IRS not offering its own free filing — the Direct File program already exists.
Valuation demands perfect execution: the 28x multiple doesn't forgive stumbles.
Debt of $6.0B against cash of $2.9B; comfortable, but not infinite breathing room.
Charlie's note
“Paying for TurboTax every April is one of the few subscriptions people hate and renew anyway. That's a moat. The current price already assumes they keep winning.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Intuit?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.