ISRG
Intuitive Surgical
Medtech / Consumables
★ Quality 73/100Price today
$347.92
what the market pays
Worth
$224.32
calculated cycle value
Price is 55% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Medtech / Consumables · few peers to compare
You pay 41.5x times this business's cash flow.
37% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (26.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $224.32 per share. Today's price of $347.92 is 35% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 55% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $213.10.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$179.46
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$213.10
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$347.92
-36% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sells the razor at cost; the fortune is in the blades.
Intuitive Surgical makes and sells the da Vinci robotic surgical system. The system is the hook; the recurring money comes from disposable instruments, accessories, and service — about 80% of 2025's $10.1B in revenue. Every procedure burns through parts the hospital buys again.
Over 9,500 installed systems create brutal switching costs: the surgeon trains for years on da Vinci and the hospital amortizes a machine worth millions. Decades of procedure data and thousands of patents raise the wall. Zero debt and 66% gross margin leave room to defend it.
Revenue history
From $5.7B to $10.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $10.1B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $72 goes to costs and operations; $28 is left as net profit (28% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Rollout of the da Vinci 5 (launched 2024) accelerating system sales in 2026.
Double-digit annual procedure growth, installed base topping 10,000 systems.
International expansion, especially India and emerging markets with low robotic penetration.
Demanding valuation: the market pays for decades of growth up front, little room for error.
Competition waking up — Medtronic Hugo and J&J Ottava looking to take a bite of the share.
Dependence on hospital capital budgets; in a recession, systems get postponed.
Charlie's note
“A surgical toll booth with zero debt and monopoly margins — the kind of business you want to hold for twenty years. The only problem is the price: it trades well above what an old cheapskate would pay.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Intuitive Surgical?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $213.10 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.