ISRG

ISRG

Intuitive Surgical

Medtech / Consumables

★ Quality 73/100
Overvalued

Price today

$347.92

what the market pays

Worth

$224.32

calculated cycle value

Worth $224.32price today $347.92

Price is 55% above its value

charlieapp.co

🏆

A monopoly position

This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$158$262$366$470$573'21'22'23'24'25'26ISRGVI $224 · MdS -36%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

How many times the cash flow

Medtech / Consumables · few peers to compare

You pay today
41.5x
Charlie: worth
26.3x

You pay 41.5x times this business's cash flow.

37% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (26.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.

Why Overvalued?

The model estimates an intrinsic value of $224.32 per share. Today's price of $347.92 is 35% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.

⚠️

The price is 55% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.

⚠️

Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.

💡

The next reasonable entry zone starts at $213.10.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$179.46

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$213.10

-5% off Value

🔴 Today

$347.92

-36% Valor

🔴

Overvalued

The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

Sells the razor at cost; the fortune is in the blades.

Intuitive Surgical makes and sells the da Vinci robotic surgical system. The system is the hook; the recurring money comes from disposable instruments, accessories, and service — about 80% of 2025's $10.1B in revenue. Every procedure burns through parts the hospital buys again.

Over 9,500 installed systems create brutal switching costs: the surgeon trains for years on da Vinci and the hospital amortizes a machine worth millions. Decades of procedure data and thousands of patents raise the wall. Zero debt and 66% gross margin leave room to defend it.

Revenue history

$5.7B
2021
$6.2B
2022
$7.1B
2023
$8.4B
2024
$10.1B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +15%

From $5.7B to $10.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $10.1B · FY2025

Cost of sales$3.4B · 34%
Operations$3.7B · 37%
Taxes and other$90M · <1%
Net profit$2.9B · 28%

Of every $100 in sales, $72 goes to costs and operations; $28 is left as net profit (28% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Rollout of the da Vinci 5 (launched 2024) accelerating system sales in 2026.

Double-digit annual procedure growth, installed base topping 10,000 systems.

International expansion, especially India and emerging markets with low robotic penetration.

⚠️

Demanding valuation: the market pays for decades of growth up front, little room for error.

⚠️

Competition waking up — Medtronic Hugo and J&J Ottava looking to take a bite of the share.

⚠️

Dependence on hospital capital budgets; in a recession, systems get postponed.

Charlie's note

A surgical toll booth with zero debt and monopoly margins — the kind of business you want to hold for twenty years. The only problem is the price: it trades well above what an old cheapskate would pay.

Analysis · June 2026

So when would be a good price for Intuitive Surgical?

By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $213.10 — so you do not have to keep checking.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.