JPM
JPMorgan Chase
Bank / BV
★ Quality 42/100Price today
$346.51
what the market pays
Worth
$208.48
calculated TBV value
Price is 66% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $208.48 per share. Today's price of $346.51 is 40% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 66% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $198.06.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$166.78
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$198.06
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$346.51
-40% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
JPMorgan is so big the government uses it as a crutch in every crisis.
Largest universal bank in the U.S. by assets. Makes money on four fronts: consumer banking (cards, mortgages, deposits), investment banking (M&A, trading), asset management, and commercial banking. Projected 2026 NII is a record: $104.5B.
Regulatory scale no new competitor can replicate — $4 trillion in assets and a balance-sheet strength the government itself leans on in crises. The low-cost deposit franchise and simultaneous leadership in IB and consumer is structural. Dimon turned 'too big to fail' into a competitive advantage.
Revenue history
From $119.5B to $177.4B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $182.4B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $69 goes to costs and operations; $31 is left as net profit (31% margin).
Catalysts and risks
2026 NII guide at a record $104.5B.
Apple Card adds ~$20B in card balances.
AI investment of $19.8B with $600M in identified efficiencies.
Trades at P/BV 2.43x vs historical average 1.57x — highest of the decade.
Credit cycle: provisions rise if the American consumer cracks.
Dimon succession still not fully resolved.
Charlie's note
“Paying 1.6x for the most fortified banking franchise in the country, with a regulatory moat no one will replicate, is about as sensible as the sector gets; 6% growth isn't dazzling, but with that margin and that scale you pay little for a lot of quality. Patience here rewards itself.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for JPMorgan Chase?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $198.06 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.