JPM

JPM

JPMorgan Chase

Bank / BV

★ Quality 42/100
Overvalued

Price today

$346.51

what the market pays

Worth

$208.48

calculated TBV value

Worth $208.48price today $346.51

Price is 66% above its value

charlieapp.co

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$105$165$226$286$347'21'22'23'24'25'26JPMVI $208 · MdS -40%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

Why Overvalued?

The model estimates an intrinsic value of $208.48 per share. Today's price of $346.51 is 40% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.

⚠️

The price is 66% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.

⚠️

Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.

💡

The next reasonable entry zone starts at $198.06.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$166.78

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$198.06

-5% off Value

🔴 Today

$346.51

-40% Valor

🔴

Overvalued

The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.

Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

JPMorgan is so big the government uses it as a crutch in every crisis.

Largest universal bank in the U.S. by assets. Makes money on four fronts: consumer banking (cards, mortgages, deposits), investment banking (M&A, trading), asset management, and commercial banking. Projected 2026 NII is a record: $104.5B.

Regulatory scale no new competitor can replicate — $4 trillion in assets and a balance-sheet strength the government itself leans on in crises. The low-cost deposit franchise and simultaneous leadership in IB and consumer is structural. Dimon turned 'too big to fail' into a competitive advantage.

Revenue history

$119.5B
2020
$121.6B
2021
$128.7B
2022
$158.1B
2023
$177.4B
2024
CAGR 5 años: +10%

From $119.5B to $177.4B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $182.4B · FY2025

Costs and operations$125.4B · 69%
Net profit$57.0B · 31%

Of every $100 in sales, $69 goes to costs and operations; $31 is left as net profit (31% margin).

Catalysts and risks

2026 NII guide at a record $104.5B.

Apple Card adds ~$20B in card balances.

AI investment of $19.8B with $600M in identified efficiencies.

⚠️

Trades at P/BV 2.43x vs historical average 1.57x — highest of the decade.

⚠️

Credit cycle: provisions rise if the American consumer cracks.

⚠️

Dimon succession still not fully resolved.

Charlie's note

Paying 1.6x for the most fortified banking franchise in the country, with a regulatory moat no one will replicate, is about as sensible as the sector gets; 6% growth isn't dazzling, but with that margin and that scale you pay little for a lot of quality. Patience here rewards itself.

Analysis · May 2026

So when would be a good price for JPMorgan Chase?

By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $198.06 — so you do not have to keep checking.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.