KO
Coca-Cola
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 58/100Price today
$82.29
what the market pays
Worth
$52.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 58% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
Coca-Cola · Fanta · Sprite · Powerade
$59.00
per share
How it's calculated
IV is an FCF-based floor. Market pays a certainty premium (63 years of dividends, 200 countries). Attractive entry <$50.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 33.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
34% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (22.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.65/share × 22.0x multiplier minus $7.00 in negative net cash = $52.00 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $82.29 is 37% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 58% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $49.40.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$41.60
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$49.40
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$82.29
-37% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Coca-Cola sells the secret recipe; others put up the capital.
Coca-Cola sells concentrate to independent bottlers in more than 200 countries; they put up the capital, she collects on the brand. Asset-light model: 62% gross margin and recurring cash from sodas, water, coffee, and sports drinks.
The brand has been in the consumer's head for 139 years, and the bottler network is impossible to replicate without decades of exclusive contracts. It's not a monopoly, but the global shelf space and instant recognition are a real barrier.
Revenue history
From $33.0B to $47.1B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $47.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $73 goes to costs and operations; $27 is left as net profit (27% margin).
Catalysts and risks
63 consecutive years raising the dividend; current payout near $2.04/share annually.
Bottler reorganization (refranchising) lifting operating margin toward 30%.
Growth in emerging markets with price/mix +9% in 2024.
GLP-1 and the anti-sugar trend erode volume in developed markets.
Strong dollar: ~60% of sales outside the U.S., recurring FX headwind.
Tax litigation with the IRS over a potential $16B in dispute.
Charlie's note
“Paying 22x for a 139-year-old brand with 62% gross margin and asset-light cash is buying quality without overpaying; the problem is that 2% growth, which forces you to be very patient for the multiple to work in your favor.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Coca-Cola?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $49.40 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.