LLY
Eli Lilly
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 64/100Price today
$1,149
This company value is already calculated
We know what it is worth from its audited numbers, and whether it trades above or below that today. Create your free account to see it.
See what it is worthcharlieapp.co
What this business is made of
The business
Lilly holds the patented recipe for the weight-loss drug half the world wants.
Eli Lilly makes prescription drugs. Today it lives off the GLP-1 boom: Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity) grew +110% and +123% in Q4 2025. It charges per prescription, with gross margins of 83%.
Patents, manufacturing scale, and the first-mover edge in injectable GLP-1. Replicating tirzepatide takes a decade and billions in trials. The moat expires with the patent (~2036), not before.
Revenue history
From $28.3B to $64.0B in 4 years — nearly 2.3x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $65.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $68 goes to costs and operations; $32 is left as net profit (32% margin).
Catalysts and risks
FDA approval of Orforglipron (oral GLP-1) in April 2026.
2026 guidance: sales $80-83B, growth +25%.
Manufacturing capacity expansion frees up FCF held back by capex.
Tirzepatide patent cliff around 2036 — the clock is ticking.
Direct competition from Novo Nordisk and the oral pipeline of Pfizer/Roche.
Political pressure on drug prices in the US.
Charlie's note
“Paying 30x for a pharma that lives off two molecules with a finite patent requires faith in the pipeline. The business is excellent today; the price assumes it stays that way in 2035.”
Analysis · May 2026
Want to follow Eli Lilly?
We do not calculate a value here: Eli Lilly does not generate cash flows you can project, and putting a number on it would be making it up. What you can do is follow it and tell us the price you care about — we will email you when it gets there.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.