LLY
Eli Lilly
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 66/100Price today
$1,160
what the market pays
Worth
$190.55
calculated cycle value
Price is 509% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$190.55
per share
How it's calculated
Dividend-FCF pharma — conservative base vs SaaS. FCF depressed by manufacturing capex (C11). RDps $14.94 (80% capitalizable → FCFeco $21.97 → IV $379). Tirzepatide: Mounjaro +110%, Zepbound +123% Q4 2025. Foundayo (oral GLP-1) FDA Apr-2026. 2026 guidance: $80-83B (+25%). Patent cliff ~2036. BARGAIN <$234, ATTRACTIVE <$264.
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 116.3x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
84% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (19.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $9.98/share × 19.1x multiplier = $190.55 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $1,160.34 is 84% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 509% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $181.02.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$152.44
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$181.02
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$1,160.34
-84% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Lilly holds the patented recipe for the weight-loss drug half the world wants.
Eli Lilly makes prescription drugs. Today it lives off the GLP-1 boom: Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity) grew +110% and +123% in Q4 2025. It charges per prescription, with gross margins of 83%.
Patents, manufacturing scale, and the first-mover edge in injectable GLP-1. Replicating tirzepatide takes a decade and billions in trials. The moat expires with the patent (~2036), not before.
Revenue history
From $28.3B to $64.0B in 4 years — nearly 2.3x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $65.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $68 goes to costs and operations; $32 is left as net profit (32% margin).
Catalysts and risks
FDA approval of Orforglipron (oral GLP-1) in April 2026.
2026 guidance: sales $80-83B, growth +25%.
Manufacturing capacity expansion frees up FCF held back by capex.
Tirzepatide patent cliff around 2036 — the clock is ticking.
Direct competition from Novo Nordisk and the oral pipeline of Pfizer/Roche.
Political pressure on drug prices in the US.
Charlie's note
“Paying 30x for a pharma that lives off two molecules with a finite patent requires faith in the pipeline. The business is excellent today; the price assumes it stays that way in 2035.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Eli Lilly?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $181.02 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.