LOW
Lowe's
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 57/100Price today
$204.18
what the market pays
Worth
$72.87
calculated cycle value
Price is 180% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$138.06
per share
How it's calculated
Lowe's — high assistant path (2026-06-06). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 19.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
49% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $13.70/share × 10.1x multiplier minus $65.19 in negative net cash = $72.87 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $204.18 is 64% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 180% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $69.23.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$58.30
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$69.23
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$204.18
-64% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
America's second-biggest hardware chain: wins when you remodel your home.
Lowe's is the second-largest home improvement chain in the U.S., with ~1,700 stores. It sells building materials, tools, and appliances to homeowners (DIY) and professionals. It brings in $86.3B in revenue with a 33% gross margin; the professional customer weighs less here than at Home Depot.
Scale and logistics density that a new competitor can't replicate cheaply. The brand and physical location drive recurring traffic, but the moat is about cost and convenience, not pricing. It doesn't dominate the professional customer the way its direct rival does.
Revenue history
From $96.3B to $86.3B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $86.3B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $92 goes to costs and operations; $8 is left as net profit (8% margin).
Catalysts and risks
FCF of $7.7B supports buybacks and a growing dividend (~25 years of increases).
Renewed remodeling spending as mortgage rates fall in 2026.
Pro initiative and digital platform aiming to regain share against Home Depot.
Debt of $37.5B against just $1.0B in cash — high leverage if sales drop.
Contracting revenue: -3% estimated CAGR (annual growth rate), no structural tailwind.
Dependence on the housing market; high rates freeze big remodeling projects.
Charlie's note
“A decent business at a price with no real discount: intrinsic value sits below where it usually trades. A good dog running second behind Home Depot — and the debt leaves little room for error.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Lowe's?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $69.23 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.