LRCX
Lam Research
Semiconductors
★ Quality 53/100Price today
$300.96
what the market pays
Worth
$49.85
calculated cycle value
Price is 504% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 20 peers
You pay 63.3x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 54.1x.
84% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (10.1x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 10.1x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 54.1x. This one drops from there:
External cyclicality. it depends on a cycle (rates, recession) it doesn't control.
Reinvests at high returns. every dollar it reinvests earns far above its cost.
That's why it's worth 10.1x, less than the 54.1x average.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $49.85 per share. Today's price of $300.96 is 83% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 504% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $47.36.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$39.88
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$47.36
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$300.96
-83% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Sin sus máquinas de grabado, ningún chip avanzado llega a existir.
Lam fabrica los equipos que graban y depositan las capas atómicas de cada chip: quitan y ponen material con precisión de nanómetros. Vende las máquinas a las fábricas (TSMC, Samsung, Micron) y luego cobra recurrente por repuestos y servicio de su base instalada. Ingresos de $18.4B, margen bruto del 49%.
El know-how de procesos es difícil de copiar y cada máquina instalada genera años de servicio y consumibles. Pero no es un monopolio: pelea grabado y deposición contra Applied Materials y Tokyo Electron. El foso es real, no infinito.
Revenue history
From $17.2B to $20.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $18.4B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $71 goes to costs and operations; $29 is left as net profit (29% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Demanda de memoria de alto ancho de banda (HBM) para IA impulsa capex de sus clientes.
Recuperación del ciclo de memoria NAND tras el fondo de 2023-2024.
Base instalada creciente que alimenta ingresos recurrentes de servicio.
China pesa cerca del 40% de las ventas; nuevos controles de exportación de EE.UU. la golpean directo.
Cíclico puro: cuando la memoria se enfría, el capex se congela primero aquí.
Sin ventaja decisiva frente a Applied Materials y Tokyo Electron en sus segmentos clave.
Charlie's note
“Negocio de primera con foso mediano y ciclo temperamental. Pagar bastante más de 10 veces su generación normalizada, con crecimiento cerca del 6%, le pide al ciclo que sonría eternamente. La gravedad, tarde o temprano, cobra intereses.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Lam Research?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $47.36 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.