LYB
LyondellBasell
Cyclical Commodities
★ Quality 6/100Price today
$63.52
This company value is already calculated
We know what it is worth from its audited numbers, and whether it trades above or below that today. Create your free account to see it.
See what it is worthcharlieapp.co
What this business is made of
The business
Refines cheap Gulf ethane into plastic; lives and dies by the spread.
LyondellBasell produces polyolefins, propylene oxide, and base chemicals that end up in packaging, auto parts, and construction materials. It charges by volume sold on a margin that depends on the spread between naphtha or ethane and the price of the polymer. It booked $30.2B in 2025 with a gross margin of just 9%.
Its edge is scale and access to cheap ethane on the Gulf Coast, which makes cracking cheaper than European rivals tied to naphtha. It's a cost advantage, not a brand one: the customer buys the molecule, not the logo. When the cycle flips, that advantage evaporates along with the spreads.
Revenue history
From $50.5B to $27.2B in 4 years. Sales are shrinking — the engine is losing steam.
Catalysts and risks
Wrap-up of the divestiture program in Europe announced for 2025-2026, cutting low-margin assets.
Recovery of the ethylene-ethane spread if new Chinese capacity stops flooding the market toward 2026.
Dividend held near $5.40/share; a cut or confirmation will mark the cycle's floor.
Net income at zero and FCF of only $0.4B against $12.1B in debt: little cushion if the cycle worsens.
Chinese overcapacity in polyolefins pressures global prices with no clear date for relief.
The current dividend isn't covered by normalized flow; its sustainability depends on cash, not earnings.
Charlie's note
“A cyclical chemical company with a cost moat, not a brand one: at 6.96x earnings and volumes falling 10% with a 9% gross margin, the low multiple is the fair price of a business whose advantage evaporates when the spread closes. Patience, and only step in when the cycle spits out fear.”
Analysis · June 2026
Want to follow LyondellBasell?
We do not calculate a value here: LyondellBasell does not generate cash flows you can project, and putting a number on it would be making it up. What you can do is follow it and tell us the price you care about — we will email you when it gets there.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.