MA
Mastercard Inc.
Platform / Network
★ Quality 76/100Price today
$536.65
what the market pays
Worth
$393.03
calculated cycle value
Price is 37% above its value
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Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$401.51
per share
How it's calculated
Payments duopoly with V. CAGR +16% vs V +11%. ROCE 62% vs V 53%. VAS +22% YoY. Market premium +27% over IV — lower than V (+40%). MA is the better-valued of the duopoly relatively. Attractive <$378, BARGAIN <$318. Risks: CCCA, Capital One migration, stablecoins.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 28.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
26% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (21.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $18.94/share × 21.2x multiplier minus $8.48 in negative net cash = $393.03 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $536.65 is 27% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 37% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $373.38.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$314.42
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$373.38
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$536.65
-27% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Charges a toll every time the world swipes a card.
Mastercard runs the world's second-largest payments network, charging a toll every time a card is swiped. It earns from processed volume, cross-border transactions (the most profitable) and value-added services like cybersecurity and analytics, which are already growing +22% YoY.
A two-sided network effect between 3.4 billion cardholders and 150 million merchants. Replicating it takes decades and billions, not just money. A 62% ROCE confirms it: the capital works as rarely seen.
Revenue history
From $15.3B to $28.2B in 4 years — nearly 1.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Catalysts and risks
Value-added services growing +22% YoY, already ~37% of revenue.
Sustained recovery in cross-border volume, a margin driver.
Expansion in B2B payments and the CCCA case setting clear rules toward 2025-2026.
Capital One's migration to the Discover network removes meaningful domestic volume.
Stablecoins and alternative rails could erode the toll over the long term.
CCCA antitrust case and regulatory pressure on interchange fees globally.
Charlie's note
“Paying 21.2x for a toll that grows at 13% with a 58% gross margin and a network moat that would take decades to replicate isn't eccentricity; it's the sensible price for an exceptional business. The discipline here isn't in debating the quality, but in waiting for the moment without blinking.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Mastercard Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $373.38 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.