MA

MA

Mastercard Inc.

Platform / Network

★ Quality 76/100
Overvalued

Price today

$579.21

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What this business is made of

76qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

The business

Charges a toll every time the world swipes a card.

Mastercard runs the world's second-largest payments network, charging a toll every time a card is swiped. It earns from processed volume, cross-border transactions (the most profitable) and value-added services like cybersecurity and analytics, which are already growing +22% YoY.

A two-sided network effect between 3.4 billion cardholders and 150 million merchants. Replicating it takes decades and billions, not just money. A 62% ROCE confirms it: the capital works as rarely seen.

Revenue history

$15.3B
2020
$18.9B
2021
$22.2B
2022
$25.1B
2023
$28.2B
2024
CAGR 5 años: +13%

From $15.3B to $28.2B in 4 years — nearly 1.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $32.8B · FY2025

Costs and operations$17.8B · 54%
Net profit$15.0B · 46%

Of every $100 in sales, $54 goes to costs and operations; $46 is left as net profit (46% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Value-added services growing +22% YoY, already ~37% of revenue.

Sustained recovery in cross-border volume, a margin driver.

Expansion in B2B payments and the CCCA case setting clear rules toward 2025-2026.

⚠️

Capital One's migration to the Discover network removes meaningful domestic volume.

⚠️

Stablecoins and alternative rails could erode the toll over the long term.

⚠️

CCCA antitrust case and regulatory pressure on interchange fees globally.

Charlie's note

Paying 21.2x for a toll that grows at 13% with a 58% gross margin and a network moat that would take decades to replicate isn't eccentricity; it's the sensible price for an exceptional business. The discipline here isn't in debating the quality, but in waiting for the moment without blinking.

Analysis · May 2026

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