MCD

MCD

McDonald's

Dividend / Cash flow

★ Quality 74/100
Overvalued

Price today

$255.69

This company value is already calculated

We know what it is worth from its audited numbers, and whether it trades above or below that today. Create your free account to see it.

See what it is worth

charlieapp.co

What this business is made of

74qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

The business

McDonald's doesn't sell burgers: it's a landlord dressed up as a clown.

McDonald's operates 43,000 burger joints globally, but 95%+ are franchises. It collects royalties (~5% of sales) and real estate rent from its franchisees. The real business is being the biggest landlord in fast food.

Location density impossible to replicate and a franchise economy where McDonald's owns the land. The brand lets it charge above-market rents to operators who still make money. Not a monopoly, it's scale with a real estate toll.

Revenue history

$23.2B
2021
$23.2B
2022
$25.5B
2023
$25.9B
2024
$26.9B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +3%

From $23.2B to $26.9B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $26.9B · FY2025

Costs and operations$18.3B · 68%
Net profit$8.6B · 32%

Of every $100 in sales, $68 goes to costs and operations; $32 is left as net profit (32% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Plan to open 50,000 restaurants by 2027 (vs ~43,000 today).

Dividend growing 48 years straight, current payout ~$7.7B annually.

Traffic recovery in the U.S. after value menu launched in 2024.

⚠️

GLP-1 (Ozempic) structurally reduces appetite in Western consumers.

⚠️

Net debt of $39B with high rates squeezes future FCF.

⚠️

Market pays 38x EV/FCF for a business growing 4% — fragile multiple.

Charlie's note

A landlord dressed up as a burger joint. Excellent business, fantasy price: paying 38x to grow 4% is math for optimists.

Analysis · May 2026

Want to follow McDonald's?

We do not calculate a value here: McDonald's does not generate cash flows you can project, and putting a number on it would be making it up. What you can do is follow it and tell us the price you care about — we will email you when it gets there.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.