MCO
Moody's Corporation
Platform / Network
★ Quality 90/100Price today
$487.63
what the market pays
Worth
$363.42
calculated cycle value
Price is 34% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$389.05
per share
How it's calculated
Moody's Corporation — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 35.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
24% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (27.2x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $14.31/share × 27.2x multiplier minus $25.63 in negative net cash = $363.42 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $487.63 is 25% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 34% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $345.25.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$290.74
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$345.25
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$487.63
-26% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Moody's sells the stamp without which your bond won't sell.
Moody's rates debt: corporate bonds, sovereigns, structured products. Every issuer pays for the rating because without it the bond doesn't sell well. It generates $7.7B in revenue, half ratings (MIS) and half analytics and data (MA), with FCF of $2.6B.
Regulatory duopoly with S&P. Institutional investors demand a rating from both, so an issuer can't skip them. The decades-long track record and accumulated trust can't be bought with capital — they're earned issuance by issuance.
Revenue history
From $5.5B to $8.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $7.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $68 goes to costs and operations; $32 is left as net profit (32% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Recovery in debt issuance volume as rates fall in 2025-2026.
Analytics segment (MA) grows double digits with recurring revenue and high margins.
Demand for ratings on private debt and expanding alternative credit markets.
Ratings revenue tied to issuance cycles: in a bond drought, it falls fast.
Debt of $7.0B against $2.4B cash in a higher-rate environment.
Regulatory and litigation risk — regulators never forget 2008.
Charlie's note
“Paying 27x for a duopoly with a 74% gross margin and a regulatory moat that can't be bought with capital is reasonable; the 6% growth is modest, so patience does the rest.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Moody's Corporation?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $345.25 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.