MDB
MDB
Usage-based SaaS
★ Quality 35/100Price today
$333.88
what the market pays
Worth
$114.78
calculated cycle value
Price is 191% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and digital usage
$101.44
per share
How it's calculated
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Usage-based SaaS · few peers to compare
You pay 52.1x times this business's cash flow.
68% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (16.5x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 16.5x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
Here's how its valuation is built versus an average business:
72% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.
Grows 29% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 16.5x.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $6.16/share × 16.5x multiplier plus $13.34 in net cash = $114.78 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $333.88 is 66% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 191% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $109.04.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$91.82
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$109.04
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$333.88
-66% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
El cuaderno flexible donde los programadores guardan datos sin pedir permiso a nadie.
MongoDB vende una base de datos donde los programadores guardan información en formato flexible, sin las rígidas tablas tradicionales. El grueso del dinero viene de Atlas, su versión en la nube: cobran según cuánto la usa el cliente. Facturaron $2.5B, con 72% de margen bruto.
La ventaja está en el hábito del programador: una vez que construye su aplicación sobre MongoDB, cambiarse cuesta caro y da miedo. Eso genera ingresos que crecen solos con el uso. El problema es que no es un foso ancho — el diseño es replicable y los gigantes de la nube lo saben.
Revenue history
From $0.9B to $2.5B in 4 years — nearly 2.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Catalysts and risks
Atlas ya pesa cerca del 70% de los ingresos y sigue ganando terreno.
Las aplicaciones de inteligencia artificial necesitan buscar por similitud, y MongoDB integró esa capacidad.
Migración de empresas desde bases de datos antiguas como Oracle.
Amazon, Microsoft y Google ofrecen bases de datos rivales dentro de sus propias nubes.
Sigue perdiendo dinero: resultado neto de -$0.1B pese al tamaño.
Los ingresos dependen del consumo del cliente; si frenan el uso, la factura baja al instante.
Charlie's note
“16x el flujo de caja para algo que crece al 30% no es un disparate. Lo que me quita el sueño es que Amazon y Google también venden bases de datos — el foso es más angosto de lo que el crecimiento aparenta.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for MDB?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $109.04 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.