MDLZ
Mondelez International
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 20/100Price today
$60.11
what the market pays
Worth
$7.32
calculated cycle value
Price is 721% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$20.59
per share
How it's calculated
Mondelez International — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 29.4x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
72% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (8.3x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.49/share × 8.3x multiplier minus $13.27 in negative net cash = $7.32 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $60.11 is 88% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 721% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $6.95.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$5.86
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$6.95
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$60.11
-88% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Oreo is a century of habit sold at 70 cents a pack.
Mondelez sells snacks in 150 countries: Oreo and belVita cookies, Cadbury, Milka and Toblerone chocolates. It booked $38.5B in 2025 selling impulse products at 70 cents a pack, billions of times over. The 28% gross margin comes from volume, not premium pricing.
The brands have a century of habit behind them — people ask for Oreo, not 'a chocolate cookie.' That buys shelf space a new competitor can't get. But it's not a deep moat: private labels gain ground when wallets tighten, and cocoa doesn't do loyalty.
Revenue history
From $28.7B to $38.5B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $38.5B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $94 goes to costs and operations; $6 is left as net profit (6% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Pricing power in emerging markets: India and Brazil are growing double digits and now make up ~40% of sales.
Growing dividend backed by $3.2B of FCF (free cash flow); a sustainable yield with a comfortable payout.
Normalization of cocoa costs after the 2024-2025 peaks would expand the gross margin from 28%.
Debt of $17.2B against cash of $0.0B — no cushion, everything rides on operating cash flow.
Cocoa and sugar squeeze margins; the 28% gross is thin for a consumer brand.
GLP-1 and the anti-sugar trend threaten indulgent snack volume over the long term.
Charlie's note
“Paying 8.26x for century-old brands that sell themselves on the shelf is a sensible price for a volume business growing at 8% — the moat isn't deep, but at this multiple you aren't asked to count on it. Patience costs little here.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Mondelez International?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $6.95 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.