MELI
MercadoLibre
Hybrid Fintech
Price today
$1,810
what the market pays
Worth
$1,874
calculated cycle value
Price is 3% below its value
charlieapp.co
Where does the value come from?
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Why Fair price?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $1,873.89 per share. Today's price of $1,810.00 is just 4% off that value — not cheap, not expensive, that's a fair price.
This is a quality business. The price reflects that quality.
There's no extra safety margin. Not the best time to buy new.
To enter with a margin, the price should drop to $1,499.11–$1,780.20.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$1,499.11
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$1,780.20
-5% off Value
⚪ Today
$1,810.00
+4% Valor
Fair price
Good business at a fair price. If you already own it, holding makes sense. For a new position, wait for a better price.
“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
LatAm's bazaar with its own bank built in.
Dominant marketplace in LatAm with a fintech engine on top: Mercado Pago processes payments, lends, and holds deposits. GMV $60.2B and TPV $59.8B over the trailing twelve months. It earns a marketplace take rate, credit spread, and payment fees.
A network of buyers, sellers, and proprietary logistics that no regional competitor has replicated in 25 years. Amazon tried in Mexico and Brazil without moving the needle. The cross-sell between marketplace and fintech creates real switching costs for the small-business seller.
Revenue history
From $4.0B to $20.8B in 4 years — nearly 5.2x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $28.9B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $93 goes to costs and operations; $7 is left as net profit (7% margin).
Catalysts and risks
TPV growing +38% YoY — fintech already outweighs many regional banks.
Mercado Crédito: loan book expanding, though with NPL >90d at 17.6%.
Advertising scaling on top of $60B GMV with margins near 100%.
NIMAL falling from 31% to 21% — credit is tightening.
NPL >90 days at 17.6%: high delinquency, demands heavy provisions.
FX exposure to the Argentine peso and Brazilian real hits USD reporting.
Charlie's note
“You pay a demanding multiple for a moat no one has crossed in 25 years: a dominant marketplace with fintech on top and real switching costs for the small-business seller. The quality justifies the price; growth and the credit spread do the rest if you have patience.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for MercadoLibre?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $1,780.20 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.