MNST
Monster Beverage
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 76/100Price today
$94.70
what the market pays
Worth
$31.76
calculated cycle value
Price is 198% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$29.64
per share
How it's calculated
Monster Beverage — high assistant path (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 45.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
68% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (14.7x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.02/share × 14.7x multiplier plus $2.12 in net cash = $31.76 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $94.70 is 66% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 198% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $30.17.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$25.41
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$30.17
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$94.70
-67% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Caffeinated water sold expensive, delivered by Coca-Cola's trucks.
Monster Beverage sells energy drinks — Monster Energy, Reign, Bang — and charges by volume to distributors, with Coca-Cola as its global logistics partner. It brought in $8.3B in 2025 with a 56% gross margin. The business is simple: cans cheap to produce, brand expensive to build.
Distribution through Coca-Cola gives it reach a new entrant can't buy. The Monster brand has real loyalty among young people and motorsports fans. Still, Red Bull fights for every shelf and private labels eat away at the low end — the moat exists, but it's no castle.
Revenue history
From $5.5B to $8.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $8.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $77 goes to costs and operations; $23 is left as net profit (23% margin).
Catalysts and risks
International expansion: markets outside the U.S. grow double digits and still make up less than 40% of sales.
Launch of the alcoholic line (Beast) opening a new category since 2025.
Aggressive buybacks: $2.1B in cash and zero debt allow share count to shrink every quarter.
No debt but no monopoly: Red Bull and private labels pressure prices and margins.
Regulation on caffeine and sugar in young people could hit the flagship product.
Net Income reported at zero this period — check for extraordinary charges before trusting the normalized FCF.
Charlie's note
“Paying 14.71x for a business growing 11% with a 56% gross margin is reasonable: the brand and the logistics partner justify the premium, though Red Bull and private labels remind us the moat isn't forever. At this multiple no miracle is required; patience is enough.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Monster Beverage?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $30.17 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.