MRK

MRK

Merck & Co

Dividend / Cash flow

★ Quality 71/100
Fair price

Price today

$150.33

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What this business is made of

71qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

The business

A gold mine called Keytruda with an eviction scheduled for 2028.

Merck sells prescription drugs and vaccines. Keytruda, its cancer immunotherapy, brings in $29.5B — nearly half the business. The rest: Gardasil, Winrevair (pulmonary hypertension, growing fast) and animal health.

Patents, decades of clinical trials and a global sales force few can replicate. But the moat has an expiration date: Keytruda loses exclusivity in 2028. A moat that empties itself if you don't dig another one in time.

Revenue history

$48.0B
2020
$48.7B
2021
$59.3B
2022
$60.1B
2023
$64.2B
2024
CAGR 5 años: +6%

From $48.0B to $64.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $65.0B · FY2025

Cost of sales$16.4B · 25%
Operations$27.6B · 42%
Taxes and other$2.8B · 4%
Net profit$18.3B · 28%

Of every $100 in sales, $72 goes to costs and operations; $28 is left as net profit (28% margin).

Catalysts and risks

Winrevair accelerating sales — potential blockbuster $5B+ by 2030.

Post-Keytruda oncology pipeline: approved subcutaneous version extends partial exclusivity.

FCF per share $7.09 supports growing dividend and buybacks.

⚠️

Keytruda's 2028 cliff: $29.5B at risk, pipeline execution is not optional.

⚠️

$17.9B annual R&D with no guarantee of replacing the lost revenue.

⚠️

Price pressure in the US via the IRA and Medicare negotiation.

Charlie's note

You pay 23x for a business with 82% gross margins, but half the profits expire with Keytruda in 2028 and it only grows at 7%. The multiple doesn't discount that cliff: you need to see how they dig the next moat before getting excited.

Analysis · May 2026

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