MRK
Merck & Co
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 74/100Price today
$127.60
what the market pays
Worth
$191.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 33% below its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$198.87
per share
How it's calculated
Keytruda $29.5B — cliff 2028 existential risk. WINREVAIR growing. pharmaRD 20% capitalizes R&D $17.9B. UNDERVALUED at $123. ⚠️ 2028 cliff requires pipeline execution.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 19.1x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.8x.
47% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (28x) — that gap is your safety margin.
Why Undervalued?
Its free cash flow is $7.09/share × 23.0x multiplier minus $7.87 in negative net cash = $191.00 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $127.60 is 50% below that value — there's a real safety margin to enter.
The price is 33% below the calculated value. There's a real safety margin.
The model asks for a discount to absorb estimate errors. That cushion is here.
If the business disappoints a little, the price should hold near $152.80.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$152.80
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$181.45
-5% off Value
🟢 Today
$127.60
+50% Valor
Undervalued
Today's price offers a real discount to the calculated value. For the long run, this is the kind of entry that builds wealth.
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
A gold mine called Keytruda with an eviction scheduled for 2028.
Merck sells prescription drugs and vaccines. Keytruda, its cancer immunotherapy, brings in $29.5B — nearly half the business. The rest: Gardasil, Winrevair (pulmonary hypertension, growing fast) and animal health.
Patents, decades of clinical trials and a global sales force few can replicate. But the moat has an expiration date: Keytruda loses exclusivity in 2028. A moat that empties itself if you don't dig another one in time.
Revenue history
From $48.0B to $64.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $65.0B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $72 goes to costs and operations; $28 is left as net profit (28% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Winrevair accelerating sales — potential blockbuster $5B+ by 2030.
Post-Keytruda oncology pipeline: approved subcutaneous version extends partial exclusivity.
FCF per share $7.09 supports growing dividend and buybacks.
Keytruda's 2028 cliff: $29.5B at risk, pipeline execution is not optional.
$17.9B annual R&D with no guarantee of replacing the lost revenue.
Price pressure in the US via the IRA and Medicare negotiation.
Charlie's note
“You pay 23x for a business with 82% gross margins, but half the profits expire with Keytruda in 2028 and it only grows at 7%. The multiple doesn't discount that cliff: you need to see how they dig the next moat before getting excited.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Merck & Co?
Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.