MRVL
MRVL
Semiconductors
★ Quality 21/100Price today
$191.73
what the market pays
Worth
$13.75
calculated cycle value
Price is 1294% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Semiconductors · vs 20 peers
You pay 110.3x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 54.1x.
92% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (9x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why does Charlie give it 9x?
The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.
An average business of its kind is worth 54.1x. This one drops from there:
Grows 16% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.
That's why it's worth 9x, less than the 54.1x average.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $13.75 per share. Today's price of $191.73 is 93% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 1294% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $13.06.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$11.00
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$13.06
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$191.73
-93% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Marvell es el sastre de silicio: corta chips a medida para cada nube gigante.
Marvell diseña chips personalizados (ASICs) y conectividad para centros de datos: los grandes de la nube le encargan silicio hecho a su medida y Marvell lo diseña y fabrica vía terceros. Cobra por diseño ganado y por cada chip vendido; el negocio de IA y óptica ya empuja los ingresos hacia $8.2B.
El foso está en co-diseñar el chip mano a mano con un Amazon o un Microsoft: una vez metido en su hardware, cambiarlo cuesta años y millones. No es monopolio —Broadcom pelea el mismo terreno— pero la propiedad intelectual en óptica y SerDes (interconexión de alta velocidad) es difícil de copiar.
Revenue history
From $4.5B to $8.2B in 4 years — nearly 1.8x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $8.2B · FY2026
Of every $100 in sales, $67 goes to costs and operations; $33 is left as net profit (33% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Rampa de silicio a medida para IA con hiperescaladores; ingresos de centro de datos ya son el motor.
Óptica de 800G y 1.6T ganando adopción en 2026.
Nuevos diseños ganados con clientes de nube que maduran en 2-3 años.
Concentración brutal: pocos clientes hiperescaladores mueven la mayoría del negocio.
Ciclo de semiconductores: correcciones de inventario pueden hundir ingresos rápido.
Deuda de $4.5B contra caja de $2.6B en un negocio cíclico.
Charlie's note
“Pagas 11x el flujo libre por un negocio que crece 16% con margen del 51%, pero sin foso que quite el sueño y dependiente de cuatro clientes. El múltiplo no es delirante para ese crecimiento; solo recuerda que en semiconductores el ciclo cobra su peaje cuando menos lo esperas.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for MRVL?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $13.06 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.