MSI
Motorola Solutions
Hybrid Industrial
★ Quality 83/100Price today
$406.75
what the market pays
Worth
$291.93
calculated cycle value
Price is 39% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Manufacturing + technology
$334.82
per share
How it's calculated
Motorola Solutions — high assistant route (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Hybrid Industrial · vs 28 peers
You pay 29.5x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 35.5x.
25% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (22x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $15.22/share × 22.0x multiplier minus $42.89 in negative net cash = $291.93 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $406.75 is 28% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 39% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $277.33.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$233.54
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$277.33
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$406.75
-28% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The nervous system of 911: nobody prays with cheap radios.
Motorola Solutions sells mission-critical radio networks, video surveillance, and dispatch software to police, firefighters, and governments. It charges for hardware once and then recurring software and services — nearly half of its $11.7B already comes from subscriptions and multi-year contracts.
When a city builds its emergency network on Motorola, it doesn't swap it out for decades: the cost of failure is a human life, not a quarter. That regulatory and operational dependence, plus standards like P25, builds a wall that no cheap-hardware competitor crosses.
Revenue history
From $8.2B to $11.7B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $11.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $82 goes to costs and operations; $18 is left as net profit (18% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Software and Services segment growing double digits toward >50% of revenue, lifting margins and FCF (2026).
Record backlog near $14B that gives revenue visibility for several years.
Acquisitions in video and AI (after Silvus, $4.4B in 2024) expanding the ticket per customer.
Debt of $8.4B against $1.2B in cash — leveraged to fund M&A.
Depends on public budgets; a cut to federal or municipal spending stalls orders.
Demanding valuation: at 22x FCF, the market already pays for perfect execution.
Charlie's note
“A boring business selling something the customer can't turn off — I like it. The price assumes they'll keep executing without a stumble, and that's on you to pay, not them.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Motorola Solutions?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $277.33 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.