MU
Micron Technology
Semiconductors
★ Quality 20/100Price today
$1,017
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What this business is made of
Where does the value come from?
5-year cycle
Money made year by year
This business has cycles — good years and bad years. That's why we don't use just the last year.
We use the average of those 4 years as the base for the math — not the good year, not the bad year. That way the value reflects what the company makes steadily.
The business
One of three memory foundries; the most efficient survives the cycle.
Micron makes memory: DRAM (~75% of revenue) and NAND flash. It sells chips by contract and spot to makers of servers, PCs, phones, and cars. In FY2025 it billed $37.4B with a 40% gross margin, driven by HBM memory for AI data centers.
Only three serious players are left in DRAM: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The barrier is capital — a plant costs more than $15B — and decades of process know-how. It's not a tollbooth moat; it's a cost oligopoly where the most efficient survives the cycle.
Revenue history
From $30.8B to $46.0B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $37.4B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $77 goes to costs and operations; $23 is left as net profit (23% margin).
Catalysts and risks
HBM3E for Nvidia accelerators: Micron projects capacity sold out well into 2026.
DRAM price recovery after the FY2023 bottom ($15.5B), with FY2025 already at $37.4B.
Net income of $8.5B in FY2025 versus losses in 2023 — operating leverage of the upswing.
It's a cyclical commodity: when supply exceeds demand, the price collapses and the margin with it.
Brutal capex — it must spend billions every year just to not fall behind on nodes.
Concentration in China and geopolitical exposure; export restrictions can close markets overnight.
Charlie's note
“A good business in a hard business. You make money hand over fist at the top of the cycle and pray at the bottom. I buy these things when everyone hates them, not after they've already run up.”
Analysis · June 2026
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