NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.
Platform / Network
★ Quality 42/100Price today
$91.58
what the market pays
Worth
$54.17
calculated cycle value
Price is 69% above its value
charlieapp.co
A monopoly position
This company has a competitive advantage so strong that its rivals find it practically impossible to replicate.
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Digital platform
$67.94
per share
How it's calculated
Nasdaq, Inc. — high assistant route (2026-06-07). Review note.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Platform / Network · vs 27 peers
You pay 28.9x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 26.1x.
36% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (18.6x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $3.65/share × 18.6x multiplier minus $13.77 in negative net cash = $54.17 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $91.58 is 41% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 69% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $51.46.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$43.34
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$51.46
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$91.58
-41% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Nasdaq stopped being the casino; it sells the security cameras.
Nasdaq runs stock exchanges, but the real business is no longer charging for every trade. It sells market technology to other exchanges, anti-fraud software and financial surveillance (Verafin, Adenza), and data and indices by subscription. Of $8.3B in revenue, most is recurring — it doesn't depend on the market going up or down.
When an institution connects its compliance and risk infrastructure to Nasdaq, it doesn't switch on a whim — the cost of migrating is high and the regulator doesn't forgive mistakes. Its indices and data are industry standard. That regulatory and integration glue is harder to replicate than the exchange itself.
Revenue history
From $5.9B to $8.3B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $8.3B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $78 goes to costs and operations; $22 is left as net profit (22% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Integration of Adenza ($10.5B, closed in 2023) pushing recurring revenue toward 80% of the mix.
Debt reduction: $8.6B versus $0.6B in cash; each year of deleveraging frees up FCF for shareholders.
Growth in the financial compliance division (Verafin) in banking, a fragmented market with a regulatory tailwind.
Net debt of ~$8B after Adenza; with high rates, the financing cost weighs on the $2.0B FCF.
The IPO business (companies going public) is cyclical and can dry up for years at a time.
Intrinsic value $54.17 — if the price trades above it, there's no margin of safety no matter how much you like the business.
Charlie's note
“Nasdaq stopped being a casino that charges you to play and became a software toll that charges every month. Good business. I'd only pay for it when Mr. Market is having one of his gloomy days.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Nasdaq, Inc.?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $51.46 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.