NEE
NextEra Energy
Dividend / Cash flow
★ Quality 25/100Price today
$88.69
what the market pays
Worth
$40.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 122% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Established business paying dividends
$81.89
per share
How it's calculated
⚠️ Utility with negative FCF from renewables capex. netCashPs destroys IV. Ref P/E: $3.31×25=$83. #1 renewable utility. FPL regulated. WAIT.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Dividend / Cash flow · vs 42 peers
You pay 55.8x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 25.7x.
37% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (35x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.34/share × 14.0x multiplier minus $41.89 in negative net cash = $40.00 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $88.69 is 55% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 122% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $38.00.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$32.00
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$38.00
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$88.69
-55% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Owner of Florida's power outlet and the world's wind factory.
NextEra runs Florida Power & Light, the largest regulated utility in the U.S., and NextEra Energy Resources, the world's biggest renewable generator. It charges regulated rates to 12 million Floridians and sells wind and solar power under long-term contracts (PPAs).
FPL has a regulated monopoly in Florida — nobody competes with the power grid of an entire state. In renewables, scale matters: NextEra develops projects at costs few can match, with 74 GW operational and a 28 GW signed backlog.
Revenue history
From $17.1B to $25.8B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $25.8B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $73 goes to costs and operations; $27 is left as net profit (27% margin).
Catalysts and risks
Renewable backlog of 28 GW committed through 2027, revenue visibility into the next decade.
Florida grows by 1,000 residents a day — FPL's rate base rises without NextEra lifting a finger.
EPS guidance of $3.45-$3.70 in 2025 and 10% annual dividend growth through 2026.
Debt of $89.6B against $2.8B in cash — high rates hurt in a capital-intensive business.
FCF structurally squeezed by renewable capex of $30B+ per year; the dividend depends on continuing to issue debt.
Regulatory risk in Florida: the next rate review (2025) could cut the allowed ROE.
Charlie's note
“Good business, uncomfortable price. You pay a growth multiple for a utility leveraged up to its eyeballs — the day the market remembers renewables consume capital before generating it, there'll be a better opportunity.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for NextEra Energy?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $38.00 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.