NEM
Newmont
Cyclical Commodities
★ Quality 67/100Price today
$96.33
what the market pays
Worth
$51.23
calculated cycle value
Price is 88% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
How many times the cash flow
Cyclical Commodities · vs 6 peers
You pay 28.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 23.9x.
48% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (14.9x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
The model estimates an intrinsic value of $51.23 per share. Today's price of $96.33 is 47% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 88% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $48.67.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$40.98
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$48.67
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$96.33
-47% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Newmont sells gold identical to everyone else's; its edge is underground.
Newmont is the world's largest gold miner: it extracts and sells gold, with copper, silver, and zinc as byproducts. It charges the spot price of the metal — it doesn't set prices, it takes them. After swallowing Newcrest in 2023, it operates mines across the Americas, Australia, and Africa with production near 6 million ounces annually.
The moat isn't in the brand, it's in the geology: long-life Tier-1 deposits that nobody discovers easily anymore. Replacing reserves takes a decade and billions. Scale gives it lower cost per ounce than small rivals, but the gold it sells is identical to anyone's.
Revenue history
From $11.9B to $23.5B in 4 years — nearly 2.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $22.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $69 goes to costs and operations; $31 is left as net profit (31% margin).
Catalysts and risks
FCF of $7.3B in 2025 with gold at highs — buybacks and dividends if the price holds.
Newcrest synergies: target of $500M annually in operating savings by 2026.
Divestment of non-core mines: sales program worth ~$2B to clean up the portfolio.
The gold price rules. It drops 20% and FCF evaporates — you don't control your revenue.
Extraction costs (AISC) rising from energy and labor; they compress margins every cycle.
Geopolitical and permitting risk in jurisdictions where the mine can't be moved.
Charlie's note
“A gold miner is a business where you spend a lot to dig out something you then bury again in a bank. Newmont is well run, but you're buying a bet on the gold price disguised as a company. Be honest with yourself about that.”
Analysis · June 2026
So when would be a good price for Newmont?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $48.67 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.