NEM

NEM

Newmont

Cyclical Commodities

★ Quality 67/100
Overvalued

Price today

$128.09

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charlieapp.co

What this business is made of

67qualityReturnsMoatBalance sheetPricing powerReinvestment

The business

Newmont sells gold identical to everyone else's; its edge is underground.

Newmont is the world's largest gold miner: it extracts and sells gold, with copper, silver, and zinc as byproducts. It charges the spot price of the metal — it doesn't set prices, it takes them. After swallowing Newcrest in 2023, it operates mines across the Americas, Australia, and Africa with production near 6 million ounces annually.

The moat isn't in the brand, it's in the geology: long-life Tier-1 deposits that nobody discovers easily anymore. Replacing reserves takes a decade and billions. Scale gives it lower cost per ounce than small rivals, but the gold it sells is identical to anyone's.

Revenue history

$11.9B
2022
$11.8B
2023
$18.6B
2024
$22.7B
2025
$23.5B
2026
CAGR 5 años: +19%

From $11.9B to $23.5B in 4 years — nearly 2.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.

Where each $100 of sales goes

Revenue $22.7B · FY2025

Cost of sales$8.1B · 36%
Operations$3.2B · 14%
Taxes and other$4.3B · 19%
Net profit$7.1B · 31%

Of every $100 in sales, $69 goes to costs and operations; $31 is left as net profit (31% margin).

Catalysts and risks

FCF of $7.3B in 2025 with gold at highs — buybacks and dividends if the price holds.

Newcrest synergies: target of $500M annually in operating savings by 2026.

Divestment of non-core mines: sales program worth ~$2B to clean up the portfolio.

⚠️

The gold price rules. It drops 20% and FCF evaporates — you don't control your revenue.

⚠️

Extraction costs (AISC) rising from energy and labor; they compress margins every cycle.

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Geopolitical and permitting risk in jurisdictions where the mine can't be moved.

Charlie's note

A gold miner is a business where you spend a lot to dig out something you then bury again in a bank. Newmont is well run, but you're buying a bet on the gold price disguised as a company. Be honest with yourself about that.

Analysis · June 2026

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Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.