NEM
Newmont
Cyclical Commodities
★ Quality 67/100Price today
$128.09
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What this business is made of
The business
Newmont sells gold identical to everyone else's; its edge is underground.
Newmont is the world's largest gold miner: it extracts and sells gold, with copper, silver, and zinc as byproducts. It charges the spot price of the metal — it doesn't set prices, it takes them. After swallowing Newcrest in 2023, it operates mines across the Americas, Australia, and Africa with production near 6 million ounces annually.
The moat isn't in the brand, it's in the geology: long-life Tier-1 deposits that nobody discovers easily anymore. Replacing reserves takes a decade and billions. Scale gives it lower cost per ounce than small rivals, but the gold it sells is identical to anyone's.
Revenue history
From $11.9B to $23.5B in 4 years — nearly 2.0x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $22.7B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $69 goes to costs and operations; $31 is left as net profit (31% margin).
Catalysts and risks
FCF of $7.3B in 2025 with gold at highs — buybacks and dividends if the price holds.
Newcrest synergies: target of $500M annually in operating savings by 2026.
Divestment of non-core mines: sales program worth ~$2B to clean up the portfolio.
The gold price rules. It drops 20% and FCF evaporates — you don't control your revenue.
Extraction costs (AISC) rising from energy and labor; they compress margins every cycle.
Geopolitical and permitting risk in jurisdictions where the mine can't be moved.
Charlie's note
“A gold miner is a business where you spend a lot to dig out something you then bury again in a bank. Newmont is well run, but you're buying a bet on the gold price disguised as a company. Be honest with yourself about that.”
Analysis · June 2026
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