NET
Cloudflare
Recurring SaaS
★ Quality 16/100Price today
$269.35
what the market pays
Worth
$55.00
calculated cycle value
Price is 390% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Software and subscriptions
$50.00
per share
How it's calculated
⚠️ C13: edge/CDN AI commoditization. Workers AI + R2 position infra. Rev $2B (+27%). P/FCF 144x. WAIT. INTEREST <$50.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Recurring SaaS · vs 26 peers
You pay 224x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 20.3x.
81% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (42.4x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $1.18/share × 17.5x multiplier plus $5.00 in net cash = $55.00 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $269.35 is 80% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 390% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $52.25.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$44.00
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$52.25
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$269.35
-80% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
The bodyguard and fast lane for half the internet, by subscription.
Cloudflare runs a global edge computing network that speeds up and protects websites, APIs, and apps. It charges via tiered SaaS subscriptions, from free plans to six-figure enterprise contracts. 2024 revenue near $1.67B, growing ~27% annually.
Its network of 330+ cities and scale effects in security give it an edge in latency and threat data. Not a deep moat: edge and CDN are becoming commoditized, and AWS, Akamai, and Fastly compete on the same turf. The real bet is Workers as a distributed compute platform.
Revenue history
From $0.4B to $1.7B in 4 years — nearly 4.3x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.
Catalysts and risks
Workers AI and R2 monetizing edge inference during 2025.
Enterprise expansion: customers >$100K growing ~28% year-over-year.
Non-GAAP operating margin heading toward 14%+ with scale leverage.
P/FCF of 144x prices in a decade of flawless execution.
CDN commoditization pressures pricing in the core.
Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) can replicate edge compute at scale.
Charlie's note
“Good business, ridiculous price. Paying 144 times cash flow for something that competes with Amazon takes a faith I don't have.”
Analysis · May 2026
So when would be a good price for Cloudflare?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $52.25 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.