NFLX
Netflix
Content / Subscription
Price today
$68.03
what the market pays
Worth
$36.49
calculated cycle value
Price is 86% above its value
charlieapp.co
Price vs Intrinsic Value
The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.
Where does the value come from?
Content and entertainment
Streaming · Contenido Original
$37.51
per share
How it's calculated
Post-split 10:1 Nov-2025. FCF $9.46B (+37%) → $1.82/share post-split. WBD acquisition CANCELED Feb-2026 — breakup fee $2.8B received. 2026 guidance: rev $50.7-51.7B (+12-14%), OM 31.5%. Ad revenue 2x to $3B+. Buybacks resume. UNDERVALUED <$23.
Net cash in the bank
cash minus financial debt, per share
Total calculated value
business + cash
How many times the cash flow
Content / Subscription · vs 6 peers
You pay 30.6x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 17.4x.
46% above what Charlie thinks it's worth (16.6x) — you're overpaying, sector or no sector.
Why Overvalued?
Its free cash flow is $2.26/share × 16.6x multiplier minus $1.02 in negative net cash = $36.49 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $68.03 is 46% above the calculated value — the market is paying a premium over what the model sees as fair.
The price is 86% above the calculated value. You're paying more than it's worth.
Buying here lowers your expected return and wipes out the safety margin.
The next reasonable entry zone starts at $34.67.
At what price would buying make sense?
Entry zones
🟢 Undervalued
≤$29.19
-20% off Value
🟡 Discounted
≤$34.67
-5% off Value
🔴 Today
$68.03
-46% Valor
Overvalued
The market prices it too high versus what the business makes. Patience pays off here.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
— Warren Buffett
Model updated · July 2026
The business
Netflix charges monthly rent on half the world's couch.
Netflix sells video streaming subscriptions to more than 300 million households, who pay a fixed fee every month. It already has a cheaper plan with ads, whose ad revenue doubles to more than $3B in 2026. 2025 revenue of $45.2B with a gross margin of 48%.
The moat is scale: it spends ~$17B a year on content that a new rival can't match, and it knows what you watch to decide what to produce. The brand is a verb ('saw it on Netflix'). But the shelf is packed with competitors whose pockets are just as deep, so the moat protects without being impregnable.
Revenue history
From $31.6B to $51.2B in 4 years. The business grows steadily.
Where each $100 of sales goes
Revenue $45.2B · FY2025
Of every $100 in sales, $76 goes to costs and operations; $24 is left as net profit (24% margin).
Catalysts and risks
2026 guidance: revenue +12-14% and operating margin 31.5%.
Ad revenue doubles to more than $3B in 2026.
Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition canceled Feb-2026: collects $2.8B breakup fee and resumes share buybacks.
No real monopoly: Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, and HBO Max fight for the same screen time.
48% gross margin gives away that producing content is expensive, far from a software margin.
Growth cools as big markets saturate and subscription prices climb.
Charlie's note
“Paying less than 17 times free cash flow for a business that compounds at 15% and widens margins is no joke. The moat isn't a castle, but the cash register rings every month.”
Analysis · July 2026
So when would be a good price for Netflix?
By our calculation, not yet. We will email you the day it drops to $34.67 — so you do not have to keep checking.
🔔 Email meFree · no card
Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.